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We had a huge day on Sunday, as Colton Cowser and Pete Crow-Armstrong went yard for us, making up for the loss on Jake Burger. We’ve gotten back on track lately, so let’s keep it rolling.
Today, we’re going with Willson Contreras, Zach Neto, and Michael Busch. Each of these hitters is heating up at the plate.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 80-330 (-0.79 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, August 24
Willson Contreras Home Run Odds
Willson Contreras has been a fantastic pickup for the Red Sox, slashing .285/.395/.538 with 26 home runs in 487 plate appearances. This includes a .253 ISO and a 14.2% barrel rate, so he’s got excellent batted ball metrics.
Contreras has been locked in at the plate lately, homering three times in six games entering Sunday’s action. Despite playing in a pitcher’s park in Miami on Monday, I like the spot against Sandy Alcantara.
This is a pitcher who Contreras has good numbers against, including one home run and a .773 expected slugging percentage in 13 plate appearances.
With that in mind, we’ll take Contreras to hit No. 27 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Zach Neto Home Run Odds
Zach Neto has had a disappointing season, slashing .235/.316/.430 with 21 home runs in 563 plate appearances. The good news is that his barrel rate is still a respectable 11.6%.
On top of that, Neto is really heating up at the plate, with three multi-hit games in his last five, including a home run against the Astros on August 20th.
You also have to like the fact that Neto has good numbers against Parker Messick, including one home run in three plate appearances. We’ve seen Neto crush lefties like Messick this season, putting up a .217 ISO.
Considering these favorable circumstances, we’ll go with Neto here. Risk 0.1 units.
Michael Busch Home Run Odds
Michael Busch came into Sunday’s action with a .244/.349/.395 slash with 16 home runs in 573 plate appearances. His barrel rate has plummeted from 17.1% to 9.1%, as has his ISO, going from .261 to .152.
However, Busch has homered in two of his last four games, so he’s starting to get on track at the plate. To that end, this feels like the ideal spot to take him.
Busch has good numbers against tonight’s starter, Merrill Kelly. In 10 career plate appearances, he’s put up one home run and a .742 expected slugging percentage.
Remember, this is a hitter who slugged 34 home runs last year, so there’s a track record here. We’ll take him to hit No. 17 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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