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We got shut out on home run props on Saturday, as George Springer, William Contreras, and Pete Alonso each failed to go yard. We’ll try to bounce back on the Sunday slate.
Today, we’re going with Colton Cowser, Jake Burger, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. I love the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 78-329 (-1.51 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, August 23
Colton Cowser Home Run Odds
Colton Cowser is currently slashing .214/.310/.353 with 11 home runs in 307 plate appearances. He’s got an abysmal 30.6% strikeout rate, but at least his barrel rate is at 10.9%.
As a left-handed hitter, Cowser is much better against righties (.150 ISO) compared to righties (.077 ISO). He’ll get one today in Nick Martinez, who has a 1.25 HR/9 vs. lefties this season (0.81 HR/9 vs. righties).
Cowser has two home runs in his last seven games, so he’s coming into this matchup in strong form. It also helps that we’re getting nearly +500 odds on Cowser to homer at the time of this article.
With that in mind, we’ll take Cowser to hit No. 12 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Jake Burger Home Run Odds
Jake Burger is currently slashing .235/.295/.416 with 21 home runs in 488 plate appearances. This includes a respectable 10.7% barrel rate.
The veteran first baseman has two home runs in his last six games, set for a matchup vs. Yusei Kikuchi.
Kikuchi is making his first start since April 29th. He’s been abysmal in rehab assignments, putting up a 15.63 ERA in 12.2 innings.
We’ve seen Burger crush lefties like Kikuchi this season, putting up a .241 ISO (.162 ISO vs. righties). That puts him in a great spot to hit his 22nd homer of the season today. Risk 0.1 units.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run Odds
Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently slashing .279/.378/.554 with 32 home runs in 575 plate appearances. This includes rock-solid batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 12.3% barrel rate.
In his last five games, PCA has five home runs, so he’s coming in hot for this game. It’s an exploitable matchup vs. Bryce Miller, who has been awful lately. Miller has given up at least one home run in seven straight outings.
So, here we have an MVP candidate in top form, set to face one of the worst pitchers in MLB over the last month or so. Sign me up for PCA to hit No. 33 here. Risk 0.1 units.
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