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We hit on Matt McLain on Thursday, giving us our second profitable night in the last three. It’s a mini-hot streak that we welcome with open arms after what’s been a disastrous cold streak. Let’s build on this with the Friday slate.
Today, we’re going with Rafael Devers, Ryan Vilade, and Shohei Ohtani. I like the matchup and price for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 77-324 (-1.55 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, August 21
Rafael Devers Home Run Odds
Rafael Devers came into Thursday’s action with a .244/.317/.471 slash with 25 home runs in 533 plate appearances. Decent power production, but his barrel rate has plummeted from 16.0% to 10.6%.
The good news is that Devers has hit safely in four of his last five games, including a home run against the Rockies on August 16th. Up next is a return to Fenway Park to face his old team, the Red Sox.
On top of the familiarity and added motivation to get back at his old team, I like the matchup vs. Sonny Gray. It’s not because Gray has struggled this season. In fact, he’s been quite effective for the Red Sox. It’s due to the batter-vs-pitcher data.
In 23 career plate appearances, Devers has six hits, with one double, two home runs, and a .484 expected slugging percentage. With that in mind, let’s ride with Devers to hit No. 26 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Ryan Vilade Home Run Odds
Ryan Vilade is slashing .259/.322/.487 with 11 home runs in 212 plate appearances for the Rays this season. He’s a right-handed hitter who has crushed lefties this season, putting up a .254 ISO. He’ll get one tonight in Orioles’ southpaw Trevor Rogers.
Vilade has been fantastic against Rogers throughout his career, going 4-for-4 with one double and one home run. That’s the kind of batter-vs-pitcher data that I can’t pass up.
It’s also worth noting that Vilade has homered twice in his last four games, so he’s coming into this one in top form. With that in mind, we’ll ride with Vilade to hit No. 12 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Shohei Ohtani Home Run Odds
Shohei Ohtani is currently slashing .291/.388/.554 with 30 home runs in 540 plate appearances. He’s starting to absolutely mash at the plate, putting up a .292/.354/.597 slash in August.
In his last three games, Ohtani has three home runs, including two against the Rockies on August 17th. He’s red-hot at the plate, so it’s the ideal time to ride with him, especially against Bubba Chandler.
In two career plate appearances vs. Chandler, Ohtani has one home run. When Ohtani is locked in like he is right now, you have to hop on board. That’s exactly what we’ll do in this exploitable matchup. Risk 0.1 units.
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