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We got shut out in home run props yet again on Thursday, as Royce Lewis and Jackson Chourio failed to hit home runs, while Zach Neto had the night off, voiding that bet. We’re on our coldest stretch of the season, desperate for a winning night on the Friday slate.
Today, we’re going with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodriguez, and Kyle Tucker. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 75-304 (-0.93 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, August 14
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run Odds
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the most disappointing hitter in baseball this season, outside of Cal Raleigh. The Blue Jays’ slugger is currently slashing .262/.337/.356 with seven home runs in 483 plate appearances. His barrel rate has plummeted from 12.2% to 6.3%.
The good news is that he’s slowly starting to hit a bit better. He’s now hit safely in six consecutive games, with two two-hit games during this stretch. He also has two barrels in this sample, so he’s hitting the ball harder.
What’s crazy about this season for Vlad is that he still hasn’t hit a home run at home. What better way to end that drought than against the Yankees?
The matchup is tough on paper against Gerrit Cole, but Vlad has had success against him in his career, homering twice with a .591 expected slugging percentage in 41 plate appearances.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Vlad to hit No. 8 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Julio Rodriguez Home Run Odds
Julio Rodriguez is currently slashing .257/.324/.426 with 19 home runs in 479 plate appearances. He’s been excellent in August, slashing .316/.447/.553 with three home runs in 47 plate appearances. That bodes well for his chances of homering tonight.
Up next is a matchup against Peter Lambert, who has a 3.43 xERA. He’s been a huge surprise for the Astros. However, Julio has performed well against Lambert, going 3-for-5 with one home run and a .942 expected slugging percentage against him.
With Julio homering three times in his last eight games, we’ll take a shot on him to go yard here. You have to like the price, as you can get him at longer than +450 odds at the time of this article. Risk 0.1 units.
Kyle Tucker Home Run Odds
Kyle Tucker has been another disappointing hitter in his first season with the Dodgers, slashing .236/.335/.377 with 11 home runs in 472 plate appearances. His barrel rate has fallen from 10.8% to 6.2%.
However, Tucker is starting to heat up at the plate. In August, he’s slashing .243/.349/.459 with two home runs in 43 plate appearances. With two home runs in his last nine games, Tucker is showing signs of life.
Up next is a matchup against Brewers’ left-hander Robert Gasser, who has a 4.15 xERA and a 1.48 HR/9 on the season. Even though it’s a lefty-vs-lefty matchup, Tucker has hit Gasser well. In four plate appearances, he has one home run and a 1.925 expected slugging percentage against him.
Considering these circumstances, we’ll ride with Tucker to hit No. 12 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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Photo Credit: REUTERS
