MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Friday, August 7, 2026
We hit a JJ Bleday to homer on Thursday, making up for a loss on Brandon Marsh. Coby Mayo did not play, so that bet was void. Let’s try to build on this with the Friday slate.
Today, we’re going with Wilyer Abreu, Shohei Ohtani, and Alec Burleson. I like the spots for each of these hitters. Each of them has elite batted ball metrics in the last seven days.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 75-285 (+0.97 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, August 7
Wilyer Abreu Home Run Odds
Wilyer Abreu came into Thursday’s action with a .254/.327/.460 slash with 20 home runs in 482 plate appearances. He’s trimmed his strikeout rate from 24.2% to 20.7% while hitting the ball hard, as highlighted by a rock-solid 12.9% barrel rate. In the last seven days, Abreu has a .591 xwOBA, which is by far the most in MLB during this stretch.
Abreu has been absolutely scorching hot at the plate, homering five times in his last six games. He’ll look to keep it rolling against the ice-cold Athletics, who are sending Jack Perkins to the mound. This is a pitcher with a 1.71 HR/9 this season, so he’s clearly had a major issue with home runs.
With how well Abreu is swinging the bat right now, I have to ride with him in this spot. It also helps that he’ll get a chance to hit against one of the worst bullpens in baseball. A’s relievers are currently 23rd in xERA.
Considering this favorable spot, we’ll go with Abreu to hit No. 21 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Shohei Ohtani Home Run Odds
Shohei Ohtani is slashing .297/.399/.554 with 26 home runs in 483 plate appearances. While the barrel rate is down from 23.4% to 16.6%, he’s starting to really heat up at the plate. In the last seven days, Ohtani has a .450 xwOBA, which is the fifth-most in MLB during that stretch. The Dodgers’ superstar has three home runs in his last eight games.
This is a road matchup against D-Backs’ righty Merrill Kelly, who can be a dependable innings-eater, but he also gives up a lot of home runs, featuring a 1.81 HR/9.
While we always have to pay a hefty price on Ohtani to hit a home run, this feels like the time to take the plunge, especially with how he’s swinging a hot bat right now.
We’ll go with Ohtani to hit No. 27 in this matchup. Risk 0.1 units.
Alec Burleson Home Run Odds
Alec Burleson has a .287/.351/.480 slash with 18 home runs in 482 plate appearances. He’s got a career-high 11.6% barrel rate while maintaining an elite 15.8% strikeout rate. Simply put, this is one of the most underrated hitters in baseball.
In the last seven days, Burleson has been red-hot at the plate, registering a .436 xwOBA, which is tied for 10th in MLB during that stretch. This is largely because of his monster game against the Yankees earlier this week, when he homered three times.
But even with that, I’m willing to take a shot on Burleson at home against Ryan Feltner, who has had major issues with the long ball, as highlighted by a 2.00 HR/9.
Considering how Burleson is rolling at the plate, along with the favorable pitching matchup, we’ll go with him to hit No. 19 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
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