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We had our second straight profitable night on Thursday, as Tyler O’Neill hit a home run, making up for losses on Tyler Stephenson and Fernando Tatis Jr. Let’s make it three in a row.
Today, we’re going with Jasson Dominguez, Taylor Ward, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 61-235 (+0.81 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, July 10
Jasson Dominguez Home Run Odds
Jasson Dominguez is currently slashing .233/.276/.400 with four home runs in 128 plate appearances. His batted ball metrics aren’t impressive either, as highlighted by a 4.3% barrel rate. But Dominguez had a .500 slugging percentage in Triple-A before getting called up to the big leagues. Still only 23 years old, there’s a lot of upside in this hitter.
We’re slowly starting to see Dominguez heat up at the plate. In his last two games, he’s gone 4-for-9, so he’s starting to get in a groove. I like the spot on the road against the Nationals, in a projected high-scoring game with a 10-run total.
Dominguez will have a chance to hit against veteran right-hander Zack Littell, who has a 6.55 xERA and a 2.3 HR/9 this season. Littell has been crushed by lefties like Dominguez, giving up a .393 wOBA.
With that in mind, I like the value on Dominguez at nearly +500 odds to go yard tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Taylor Ward Home Run Odds
Taylor Ward has a .255/.383/.352 slash while trimming his strikeout rate from 26.4% to 21.1%. The biggest question is, what happened to the power? After slugging 36 homers last year, Ward only has five this year, which is extremely surprising.
However, Ward has three 23+ homer seasons under his belt, so it’s likely only a matter of time before we see a power binge. Perhaps this is the start of one, as Ward has hit safely in six of his last seven games. Maybe these are the signs that he’s finding his groove at the plate.
I like the matchup against the Royals. It’s a projected high-scoring game at Camden Yards, as highlighted by a 10.5-run total. We’re also getting an exploitable spot vs. Luinder Avila, who has a 4.51 xERA and a .395 wOBA allowed vs. righties like Ward.
Add in the fact that we’re getting longer than +550 odds on Ward at the time of this article, and you can see why this is an appealing wager.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run Odds
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been one of the most disappointing hitters in MLB, slashing .262/.343/.351 with five home runs in 373 plate appearances. While the barrel rate is way down at 7.0%, it’s encouraging to see the 12.1% strikeout rate.
This power outage won’t last much longer. In fact, Vladdy may already be coming out of his slump, having finally homered last game. I’ll take my chances that he can make it two in a row, this time against lefty JP Sears.
Sears has a 5.91 xERA and a 2.35 HR/9 on the season. It’s the perfect spot to target Vlad Jr. to hit No. 6 on the season. Risk 0.1 units.
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