MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Friday, July 24, 2026
We got shut out on Thursday, as Austin Riley and Victor Mesa Jr. each failed to hit home runs. We’ll try to bounce back on a stacked Friday slate.
Today’s picks include Corbin Carroll, Yordan Alvarez, and Joc Pederson. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 67-255 (+1.13 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, July 24
Corbin Carroll Home Run Odds
Corbin Carroll is currently slashing .251/.341/.492 with 15 home runs in 425 plate appearances. This includes an 11.6% barrel rate and 112.9 MP maximum exit velocity. The D-Backs’ outfielder has two homers in his last six games, including one near-miss last night. I like him to hit No. 16 in a favorable spot tonight.
This game is projected to be high-scoring, as highlighted by the 9.5-run total. Additionally, the Nationals are starting Carson Palmquist, who has a 4.12 xERA on the season. He’ll be a bulk reliever who only goes two innings or so. That’s why I’m not concerned that this is a lefty-vs-lefty matchup.
On top of that, you’d be surprised to read that Carroll actually has reverse splits, performing well against left-handers, putting up a 174 wRC+ against them. With that in mind, let’s ride with the D-Backs’ star in this spot.
Yordan Alvarez Home Run Odds
Yordan Alvarez is having an MVP season, slashing .328/.433/.656 with 34 home runs in 446 plate appearances. This includes an otherworldly 19.1% barrel rate while maintaining a 17.0% strikeout rate. Simply put, Alvarez has been the best hitter in baseball this season. He’s also coming in hot in this one, homering three times in his last three games.
It’s a favorable spot against White Sox right-hander Davis Martin, who has really hit a wall lately. In his last eight starts, Martin has a 5.75 xERA. It’s clear that regression is hitting him hard after a strong start to the season.
While it’s always expensive to take an Alvarez home run prop, I’m willing to do so here in a game with a 9-run total at longer than +200 odds. Bet on the MVP favorite to hit No. 35 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Joc Pederson Home Run Odds
Joc Pederson is having a nice bounce-back year for the Rangers, slashing .244/.339/.489 with 17 home runs in 305 plate appearances. He’s increased his barrel rate from 9.4% to 11.7% this year, which is encouraging. Pederson is coming in hot, homering three times in his last six games.
This is a left-handed hitter who is much better vs. righties, putting up a 133 wRC+ against them (104 wRC+ vs. lefties). He’ll get one tonight in Bryce Miller, who hasn’t looked as sharp in his last two starts, putting up a 4.13 xERA and a 1.69 HR/9.
Given how hot Pederson has been at the plate, this feels like a good spot to ride with them, especially since we’re getting nearly +400 odds at the time of this article. Bet on Pederson to hit No. 18 here. Risk 0.1 units.
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