MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Friday, July 31, 2026

We made a small profit on Thursday, as Brandon Lowe homered, helping make up for the loss on James Wood. Shohei Ohtani was out of the lineup, so that bet was void.

Today, we’re going with Dominic Canzone, Francisco Alvarez, and Jake Bauers. I like the spots for each of these hitters.

Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 70-271 (+0.66 units) 

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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, July 31

Dominic Canzone Home Run Odds

Dominic Canzone is having a breakout season for the Mariners, slashing .261/.337/.526 with 18 home runs in 306 plate appearances. This includes an impressive 14.8% barrel rate.

Canzone has been hitting the ball hard lately. In the last seven days, he has a .557 xwOBA, which ranks 1st in MLB. During this stretch, Canzone has three home runs in his last six games.

Up next is an exploitable matchup vs. Twins’ right-hander Zebby Matthews, who has a 4.73 xERA and a 1.78 HR/9 on the season. Matthews has been worse against lefties (4.71 xFIP) compared to righties (4.15 xERA), which bodes well for Canzone, who bats from the left side.

With that in mind, it’s a good spot to take the Mariners’ outfielder to hit his 19th homer of the season. Risk 0.1 units.

Francisco Alvarez Home Run Odds

Francisco Alvarez has quietly been a bright spot for the Mets in what’s been a disastrous season, slashing .257/.340/.443 with 12 home runs in 270 plate appearances. His batted ball metrics look excellent, featuring a 16.0% barrel rate.

In the last seven days, Alvarez has a .450 xwOBA, which ranks 5th in MLB. While the results haven’t been there for this elite batted ball quality, I like the spot at home against the Marlins.

Miami is sending out Janson Junk, who has a 4.05 xERA and a 1.34 HR/9 this season. We’ve seen him allow at least one homer in two of his last three starts.

With Alvarez continuing to crush the ball, it’s a good time to take him to hit No. 13, especially since he’s been rumored to be on the trade block, so there’s motivation to show what he can do. Risk 0.1 units.

Jake Bauers Home Run Odds

Jake Bauers has been a surprising breakout this season, slashing .267/.370/.491 with 18 home runs in 386 plate appearances. He’s maintained a rock-solid 13.5% barrel rate and earned more playing time this year, after several seasons of being a bench bat.

In the last seven days, Bauers has a .446 xwOBA, which ranks 7th in MLB. Up next is an exploitable matchup against Angels’ right-hander Ryan Johnson, who just got rocked by the Giants for eight earned runs in 3.1 innings.

Johnson has a 4.89 xERA and a 2.38 HR/9 on the season, so it’s a good spot to take a shot on Bauers to go yard.

With that in mind, we’ll ride with Bauers to hit No. 19 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.

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