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It was a profitable night on Thursday, as Joc Pederson hit a home run, making up for a loss on Bryson Stott. The Diamondbacks vs Cardinals was rained out, so my Lars Nootbaar bet was void.
Today, we’re going with Junior Caminero, Riley Greene, and Jac Caglianone. Each of these hitters is in a good spot. Let’s ride with them to build off Thursday’s win.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 52-204 (+0.54 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, June 26
Junior Caminero Home Run Odds
Junior Caminero is slashing .285/.377/.519 with 19 home runs in 342 plate appearances. He’s increased his walk rate from 6.3% to 13.2% and trimmed his strikeout rate from 19.1% to 17.8%. He’s also maintained a respectable 12.7% barrel rate. Needless to say, it’s been a strong follow-up to his 45-homer season from last year.
Caminero is coming off a monster game against the Royals, where he homered three times. That’s now four home runs in his last three games. For power hitters like Caminero, home runs often come in bunches. This looks like one of those times, so we have to hop on board this freight train.
It’s a great matchup against Diamondbacks’ righty Zac Gallen, who has a 5.70 xERA and a 1.47 HR/9 this season. Gallen has allowed six home runs in his last five starts.
We’re getting this prop at longer than +300 odds, making it a nice value on one of the best hitters in baseball. Risk 0.1 units.
Riley Greene Home Run Odds
Riley Greene hasn’t been nearly as good as last year in terms of power, where he hit 36 home runs, as he’s only at nine so far. But he’s still hitting the ball hard (12.9% barrel rate), so it’s only a matter of time before he gets going. We saw him homer as recently as June 22nd.
I like him to go yard once again here, as it’s a good matchup vs. Astros’ right-hander Spencer Arrighetti. This a pitcher who is ripe for regression, as his 4.57 xERA is much higher than his 3.13 ERA.
More importantly, Greene has some of the craziest batter-vs-pitcher data against Arrighetti that you’ll ever see. In five career plate appearances, Greene has three home runs and a 1.824 expected slugging percentage vs. Arrighetti.
Simply put, I can’t pass up those numbers. We’ll take a shot on Greene to hit No. 10 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds
Jac Caglianone is showing everyone why he was such a touted prospect coming out of college. June has been a monster month for the Royals’ slugger, as he’s slashing .337/.415/.699 with nine home runs in 94 plate appearances.
This includes six home runs in his last seven games. That’s the kind of hot streak that we don’t want to continue to miss out on, especially when we’re getting +400 odds on him to go yard.
The White Sox are going with Davis Sandlin for this game. This is a pitcher with a 2.70 HR/9 on the season. He’s allowed four homers in his three starts.
With how hot Caglianone has been at the plate, this is the ideal spot to ride with him. Risk 0.1 units.
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