MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Monday, August 10, 2026

We got shut out in home run props on Sunday, as Jarren Duran, Michael Busch, and Owen Caissie each failed to go yard. We’re ice cold right now, desperate for a winning night on the Monday slate. 

Today, we’re going with Wilyer Abreu, Bo Bichette, and Hunter Goodman. I like the spots for each of these hitters.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 75-293 (+0.17 units)

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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, August 10

Wilyer Abreu Home Run Odds

Wilyer Abreu is currently slashing .255/.330/.460 with 20 home runs in 496 plate appearances. This includes a 20.6% strikeout rate and a 12.9% barrel rate, so he’s been able to make contact while barreling the ball, which is impressive. Since August 1st, Abreu has been one of the hottest hitters in MLB, slashing .375/.469/.917 with four home runs in 32 plate appearances. 

Up next is an exploitable matchup against Jameson Taillon, who has a 6.05 xERA in 80 innings this season. The Blue Jays’ right-hander has had major issues with the long ball this year, as highlighted by a 2.93 HR/9 and 15.2% barrel rate. Giving up that much hard contact is a recipe for disaster against a red-hot hitter like Abreu.

On top of that, the Blue Jays have a taxed bullpen, having played in extra innings in an astounding four of their last five games. That means that Taillon could pitch deeper than usual, even if he’s getting hit hard. It also means that Abreu may get to face one of Toronto’s lower-leverage relievers. With that in mind, we’ll take Abreu to homer here. Risk 0.1 units.

Bo Bichette Home Run Odds

Bo Bichette is currently slashing .263/.307/.378 with 11 home runs in 511 appearances. It’s been a disappointing debut season with the Mets for Bichette, but there are some encouraging signs. Since August 1st, the former Blue Jays shortstop is slashing .353/.389/.529 with one home run in 36 plate appearances. This includes a five-hit game against the Pirates on Sunday. 

You have to like the spot against Braves’ right-hander Bryce Elder, who has a 1.35 HR/9 on the season. When Elder faced the Mets back on June 14th, he was tagged for six earned runs and two homers in only four innings. In six career plate appearances vs. Elder, Bichette has a .789 expected slugging percentage, which is also encouraging.

Like the Blue Jays, the Braves have been involved in a few extra-inning games lately, playing into them in two of their last three. That means that their bullpen is a bit fatigued, so we could see more of Elder here, which bodes well for Bichette. We’re getting a great price at longer than +700 odds at the time of this article, so we’ll ride with Bichette in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.

Hunter Goodman Home Run Odds

Hunter Goodman is having a phenomenal season for the Rockies, slashing .254/.321/.546 with 34 home runs in 449 plate appearances. This includes an elite 16.3% barrel rate. Simply put, Goodman has developed into one of the best power hitters in baseball. We just saw him homer yesterday, and with how power can come in bunches for these sluggers, we’re going to ride with him here.

I like the spot against Diamondbacks’ right-hander Michael Soroka, who is making his return from an extended absence due to injury. It’s his first start since June 19th. That means that he may need some time to get back on track, making this an exploitable matchup for Goodman. 

It’s also unlikely that Soroka goes deep in this game, as the D-Backs manage his workload in his first game back. We could see Goodman have some opportunities vs. an underwhelming D-Backs bullpen here. With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on him to hit No. 35 at longer than +300 odds. Risk 0.1 units.

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