MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Monday, August 3, 2026

We’re writing Monday’s column early, so our Sunday results are still pending. It’s a smaller slate on Monday with only eight games, but we can still find value with what we have here.

Today, we’re going with Kazuma Okamoto, Spencer Jones, and Daylen Lile. I like both the matchup and price for each of these hitters.

Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 73-274 (+1.25 units)*

*pending Isaac Paredes, Kyle Karros, and Keith McGonigle

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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, August 3

Kazuma Okamoto Home Run Odds

In a year where almost everything has gone wrong for the Blue Jays, first-year third baseman Kazuma Okamoto has been a rare bright spot, especially for the offense. While he’s been incredibly streaky, he’s provided much-needed power for a dormant offense. Heading into Sunday’s action, Okamoto was slashing .228/.305/.449 with 24 home runs in 440 plate appearances.

While there are major contact issues here, when Okamoto is able to connect, he hits the ball hard, featuring an impressive 13.4% barrel rate. He’s coming into this matchup in decent form, hitting safely in four of his last six games with one home run during that stretch.

Up next is a matchup in Houston, which is favorable for right-handed power hitters like Okamoto, since the Crawford Boxes in left field make it easier for a pulled fly ball to turn into a home run.

We also should note that Astros’ righty Hayden Wesneski struggled in his return to action, allowing three earned runs in 5.2 innings. With that in mind, we’ll ride with Okamoto to hit No. 25 here. Risk 0.1 units.

Spencer Jones Home Run Odds

Spencer Jones is similar to Okamoto in that he has contact issues, but there’s some impressive power in that bat. Jones was slashing .273/.385/.557 with 14 home runs and a .284 ISO in 233 plate appearances at Triple-A this year. In the big leagues, he’s at a .247/.333/.452 slash with five homers and a .204 ISO.

Jones comes into Monday’s action in good form, homering three times in his last five games. That’s good news in a home matchup against Michael McGreevy, who has a 5.67 xERA and a 1.16 HR/9 this season. We just saw McGreevy get rocked for seven earned runs against the Cubs in his last outing. He’s given up at least one home run in six of his last nine starts.

That’s bad news for McGreevy at Yankee Stadium and good news for Jones, as it’s an ideal matchup for the short porch in right field. We all know how that helps left-handed power hitters.

Considering this favorable spot, we’ll take Jones to hit his sixth homer of the year. Risk 0.1 units.

Daylen Lile Home Run Odds

Daylen Lile isn’t exactly known for his power, slashing .247/.298/.416 with 13 home runs and a .169 ISO in 457 plate appearances. However, we just saw him hit two homers against the Braves on July 30th, so he’s coming into this matchup in good form.

I like the spot against Phillies’ right-hander Aaron Nola, who has a 4.34 xERA and a 2.05 HR/9 in 114 innings this season. Nola has given up at least one home run in eight of his last nine starts. During this stretch, Nola has given up 2+ homers in six games.

Needless to say, this is exactly the type of pitcher you want on the mound when you’re taking a home run prop. Since Lile has less power than other Nationals’ sluggers like James Wood and CJ Abrams, we get him at a better price.

To that end, let’s ride with Lile to hit No. 14. Risk 0.1 units.

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