MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Monday, July 27, 2026
We hit on Jackson Merrill to homer on Sunday, making it a profitable night even with Jackson Chourio and Christian Encarnacion-Strand failing to go yard.
Today’s picks include Curtis Mead, Michael Busch, and Brady House. I love the spots and the prices on each of these hitters.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 68-263 (+0.78 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, July 27
Curtis Mead Home Run Odds
Curtis Mead is having a breakout season, slashing .254/.352/.500 with 17 home runs in 327 plate appearances. He’s increased his walk rate from 5.7% to 11.9% while trimming his strikeout rate from 23.9% to 19.0%. This is while bumping up his barrel rate from 4.5% to 10.8%.
The Red Sox acquired Mead in a trade with the Nationals, where they sent lefty Connelly Early. Mead is expected to make his Red Sox debut tonight, set for an exploitable matchup at Sutter Health Park, which is one of the most homer-friendly environments in baseball.
Jack Perkins is on the mound for the Athletics. The 26-year-old righty has a 1.58 HR/9 on the season, so he’s had an issue with the long ball. On top of that, he’s been worse vs. righties (1.8 HR/9) like Mead compared to lefties (1.38 HR/9).
We’re getting Mead at longer than +500 odds at the time of this article, making this look like a nice value. Risk 0.1 units.
Michael Busch Home Run Odds
Michael Busch is currently slashing .247/.368/.405 with 13 home runs in 468 plate appearances. His barrel rate has fallen from 17.1% to 9.6%. Still, this is a slugger who hit 34 home runs last season, so there’s a track record here.
That’s why I like taking the shot on Busch tonight at longer than +600 odds. This is such a longshot price because lefty Matthew Liberatore is expected to start for the Cardinals, so there’s a lefty-vs-lefty matchup here. But Busch has done well against lefties this season, putting up a 119 wRC+.
We also have to acknowledge that this is a projected high-scoring game with a total of 9.5 runs, which is a high number for Busch Stadium. The number is this high because we’re getting 94-degree temperatures with the wind blowing out to center field.
Those are ideal hitting conditions, making Busch worth the play tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Brady House Home Run Odds
After trading Curtis Mead to the Red Sox, the Nationals recalled Brady House, who was slashing .301/.342/.500 with eight home runs in 222 plate appearances at Triple-A. Before getting demoted to the minors, House was displaying rock-solid batted ball metrics, including a 10.2% barrel rate.
Up next is a favorable matchup at home in a projected high-scoring game with a 9.5-run total. Forecasts call for 84-degree temperatures with the wind blowing out to left field at nearly 5 MPH.
It also bodes well that Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Blue Jays. The veteran righty has a 3.68 HR/9 on the season, so home runs have been a major issue for him.
We’re also getting House at a longshot price of longer than +700 odds at the time of this article. That’s terrific value on an underrated hitter. Risk 0.1 units.
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