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It was another profitable night on Sunday, as Kyle Schwarber hit a home run, making up for misses on Jo Adell and Shohei Ohtani. Let’s try to make it another winning day on the Monday slate.
Today, we’re going with Brandon Lowe, Wilyer Abreu, and Cal Raleigh.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 56-209 (+1.44 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, June 29
Brandon Lowe Home Run Odds
Brandon Lowe is currently slashing .243/.318/.508 with 20 home runs in 346 plate appearances. He’s maintaining a rock-solid 12.7% barrel rate while cutting his strikeout rate from 26.9% to 25.7%. Needless to say, it’s been a terrific debut season for Lowe in Pittsburgh.
The veteran second baseman is heating up at the plate, homering twice in the last four games. This is encouraging because up next is an exploitable matchup against Phillies’ right-hander Aaron Nola, who has a 4.28 xERA and a 1.9 HR/9 this season. Nola gives up a lot of hard contact, as highlighted by a 9.4% barrel rate.
On top of that, lefties like Lowe have crushed Nola this season, including a .391 wOBA (.320 wOBA vs. righties).
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Lowe to hit No.21 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Wilyer Abreu Home Run Odds
Wilyer Abreu is currently slashing .267/.335/.436 with 10 home runs in 345 plate appearances. Even though his homer total is underwhelming, you have to like how he’s trimmed his strikeout rate from 24.2% to 19.1% while maintaining a respectable 11.4% barrel rate.
Abreu has homered twice in his last eight games, so he’s slowly heating up at the plate. That’s good news for tonight’s matchup against Nationals’ right-hander Miles Mikolas, who has a 4.73 xERA and a 1.86 HR/9 this season. This is a pitcher with a major home run problem, so Abreu getting to face him at a hitter-friendly environment like Fenway Park bodes well.
Considering these factors, we’ll ride with Abreu to hit No. 21 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Cal Raleigh Home Run Odds
Cal Raleigh is currently slashing .165/.258/.310 with eight home runs in 231 plate appearances. It’s been a disastrous follow-up to his 60-homer year in 2025. Raleigh’s barrel rate has plummeted from 19.5% to 11.5%, while his strikeout rate has jumped from 26.7% to 30.7%.
The good news is we’re slowly seeing signs of improvement. In June, Raleigh has a 22.0% walk rate with a 102 wRC+. Remember, he’s been slowed down by an injury, so it’s taking time for him to find his groove.
Even if you view Raleigh’s 60-homer season as an outlier, he still was a 30+ homer hitter for back-to-back seasons. I’m hopeful that he can get on a hot streak sooner rather than later.
I like the matchup against Angels’ right-hander Ryan Johnson, who has a 4.57 xERA and a 2.33 HR/9 this season. Facing a pitcher with a home run problem like this is exactly what Raleigh needs here. We’ll take him to hit No. 9 tonight. Risk 0.1 units
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