MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Saturday, August 1, 2026
We made a small profit on Thursday, as Jake Bauers homered, helping make up for losses on Dominic Canzone and Francisco Alvarez.
Today, we’re going with Spencer Torkelson, Jac Caglianone, and Matt Olson. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 71-273 (+0.79 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, August 1
Spencer Torkelson Home Run Odds
Spencer Torkelson has underwhelming season-long numbers, including a .216/.308/.426 with 20 home runs in 427 plate appearances. However, Torkelson has been hitting much better lately.
In the last 14 days, Torkelson is slashing .289/.346/.556 with four home runs in 52 plate appearances. During this stretch, he’s striking out only 19.2% of the time while putting up a 10.8% barrel rate. We saw him homer on July 29th against the Orioles, and I like the spot for him tonight.
For one, this game is at Sutter Health Park, which is one of the most homer-friendly environments in MLB. It’s a projected high-scoring game, which is reflected in tonight’s total of 10.5 runs.
On top of that, Jack Perkins is on the mound for the A’s. The 26-year-old righty has had some issues with the long ball, as highlighted by a 1.45 HR/9. He’s also been worse vs. righties like Torkelson (.346 wOBA) compared to lefties (.316 wOBA).
Even though we need to pay up for this prop at nearly +300 odds, it still feels worth it with how Torkelson is swinging the bat lately. Risk 0.1 units.
Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds
Jac Caglianone is slashing a respectable .251/.310/.450 with 17 home runs in 394 plate appearances in his first full season in the big leagues. This includes an excellent 14.6% barrel rate.
Caglianone has gotten better as the season has gone along. Since June 1st, he’s slashing .266/.317/.516 with 12 home runs in 199 plate appearances. We saw him homer on July 30th, so perhaps he’s getting hot once again, since we often see home runs come in bunches.
I like that we’re getting him at longer than +300 odds at Coors Field, which we all know is one of the best hitters’ parks in baseball. The Rockies are going with right-hander Ryan Feltner, who has a 5.85 xERA and a 1.91 HR/9 this season. This is exactly the type of pitcher you want when targeting a home run prop.
With that in mind, this feels like the right matchup to ride with Caglianone. Risk 0.1 units.
Matt Olson Home Run Odds
Matt Olson is having a nice resurgence after a down year last season, slashing .263/.340/.529 with 29 home runs in 483 plate appearances. This includes an impressive 14.1% barrel rate.
Olson has homered three times in his last eight games, which bodes well against tonight’s favorable matchup vs. Miles Mikolas, who has a 5.20 xERA and a 2.03 HR/9 this season.
It’s also encouraging to see that Olson has had success against Mikolas throughout his career, putting up two home runs and a .913 expected slugging percentage in 17 plate appearances.
Despite that, I was surprised to see that we’re getting longer than +300 odds on one of the best power hitters in MLB in this favorable spot. Perhaps it’s because Mikolas doesn’t go deep into games, but Olson should still get two plate appearances against him.
In a projected high-scoring game with a 9.5-run total, we’ll ride with Olson to hit his 30th homer of the season. Risk 0.1 units.
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