MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Saturday, August 8, 2026
We got shut out in home run props on Friday, as Wilyer Abreu, Shohei Ohtani, and Alec Burleson each failed to go yard. We’ll try to get back on track with the Saturday slate.
Today, we’re going with Willson Contreras, George Springer, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 75-288 (+0.67 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, August 8
Willson Contreras Home Run Odds
Willson Contreras came into Friday night slashing .288/.395/.540 with 23 home runs in 430 plate appearances. It’s been a career year for Contreras in his first season with the Red Sox, featuring an elite 158 wRC+. He has displayed excellent batted ball metrics, including a 14.5% barrel rate.
Contreras has one home run in his last five games, but I like the spot at Fenway Park. This year, Contreras has a .321/.425/.582 slash with a .261 ISO at home. On top of that, he’s facing a lefty in Gage Jump. Contreras has pummeled lefties this season, registering a 168 wRC+ against them.
Jump has allowed six earned runs in two of his last three starts. We saw him give up three homers in one outing against the Diamondbacks, back on July 22nd. Needless to say, the rookie lefty has hit a wall lately. We see this reflected in the total, which currently sits at 9.5 runs, so it’s a projected high-scoring affair.
Considering this favorable spot, we’ll go with Contreras to hit No. 24 here. Risk 0.1 units.
George Springer Home Run Odds
After an incredible resurgence last season, George Springer has been a massive disappointment for the Blue Jays in 2026, slashing .234/.316/.398 with 12 home runs in 373 plate appearances. His barrel rate has fallen from 15.8% to 7.2%. However, there are some encouraging signs worth noting for Springer.
Heading into Friday night, Springer was slashing .278/.340/.474 with four home runs in 106 plate appearances since June 28th. He has hit safely in 10 of his last 12 games. Perfect timing for his upcoming exploitable matchup.
Not only is this game in a hitter-friendly environment like Citizens Bank Park, but Aaron Nola is on the mound for the Phillies. The veteran right-hander has had a major issue with home runs, registering a 2.10 HR/9 and a 10.0% barrel rate. Nola has given up a combined nine home runs in his last five starts.
With Springer showing signs of life at the plate, it’s a good time to take him vs. Nola. Risk 0.1 units.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run Odds
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been playing like an NL MVP candidate this season. Heading into Friday’s action, PCA was slashing .289/.386/.550 with 26 home runs in 511 plate appearances. He has increased his walk rate from 4.5% to 11.7% while maintaining a 12.2% barrel rate.
PCA is batting .409 with two homers in August so far, so he’s in top form just in time for a great matchup at a hitter-friendly environment like Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are sending out Seth Lugo, who has a 5.35 xERA and a 1.05 HR/9 on the season. He has been worse vs. lefties like PCA (.351 wOBA) compared to righties (.330 wOBA).
This is a projected high-scoring game, as reflected in the 9.5-run total. With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on this NL MVP candidate to hit his 27th homer of the season. Risk 0.1 units.
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