MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Saturday, July 25, 2026
We got shut out on Friday, as Corbin Carroll, Yordan Alvarez, and Joc Pederson each failed to hit home runs. We need to snap out of the cold streak today.
Today’s picks include Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, and Heriberto Hernandez. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 67-258 (+0.83 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, July 25
Kyle Schwarber Home Run Odds
Kyle Schwarber is having yet another terrific season, slashing .248/.361/.547 with 33 home runs in 443 plate appearances. While he has only one home run since July 8th, I like the spot for him today.
We’re getting a better price than usual on Schwarber at longer than +250 odds because it’s a lefty-vs-lefty matchup against Ryan Weathers. But Schwarber has actually been good against lefties this season, putting up a 157 wRC+ against them.
On top of that, Schwarber has had success against Weathers throughout his career. In six plate appearances, he has two home runs and a .776 expected slugging percentage. Add in the fact that this is in a hitter-friendly environment like Citizens Bank Park, and you can see why this is an appealing wager.
Bet on Schwarber to hit No. 34 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Pete Alonso Home Run Odds
Pete Alonso’s overall numbers are down in his first year with the Orioles, slashing .249/.347/.463 with 21 home runs in 453 plate appearances. His barrel rate has plummeted from 18.9% to 11.8%. However, he has two multi-hit games in his last three, and he nearly had a home run last night, but Michael Harris made a spectacular catch.
I like the spot against Braves’ right-hander Bryce Elder, who has had issues with the long ball this year, giving up a 1.41 HR/9. Alonso knows Elder quite well. In 15 career plate appearances, he has one homer with a .772 expected slugging percentage.
As with Schwarber, this game is in a hitter-friendly environment at Camden Yards, so it’s the right spot to ride with Alonso. You can get him at around +300 odds at the time of this article. Risk 0.1 units.
Heriberto Hernandez Home Run Odds
Heriberto Hernandez has been quite the find for the Marlins, slashing .250/.322/.487 with 14 home runs in 258 plate appearances. This includes an impressive 13.1% barrel rate. Hernandez homered last night, and I like his chances of going yard for the second game in a row.
It’s a favorable matchup against Padres’ left-hander JP Sears, who has had major issues with home runs, allowing a 1.82 HR/9 this season. What’s even better is that Hernandez has absolutely crushed lefties this season, putting up a 154 wRC+ against them.
While he’s priced up compared to usual at around +340 odds at the time of this article, I still think Hernandez is worth a shot in this favorable spot. Bet on him to hit No. 15 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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