MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Sunday, August 16, 2026

It’s been an extremely tough week for home run props this week. Last night, we lost on Kyle Schwarber, Jake Bauers, and Bobby Witt Jr. Let’s try to at least finish the week on a positive note with a winning day on Sunday.

Today, we’re going with Pete Alonso, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jac Caglianone. These are three hot hitters in good spots this week. 

Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 75-310 (-1.53 units)

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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, August 16

Pete Alonso Home Run Odds

Pete Alonso is currently slashing .264/.356/.487 with 27 home runs in 534 plate appearances in his debut season with the Orioles. This includes rock-solid batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 13.9% barrel rate. 

In the last seven days, Alonso has a .601 xwOBA, which ranks 1st in MLB. We’ve seen him homer four times in his last six games, so he’s coming in hot for this one. It’s an exploitable matchup against Freddy Peralta.

The Rays’ right-hander has had major issues with the long ball this season, putting up a 1.46 HR/9. He’s allowed at least one home run in six of his last seven outings. Given how hot Alonso has been, we’ll take a shot on him to homer here. Risk 0.1 units.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run Odds

Fernando Tatis Jr. has really turned it around after a poor start to the season, now slashing .279/.354/.423 with 13 home runs in 537 plate appearances. This includes a 11.6% barrel rate and a 52.6% hard-hit rate. 

He’s now homered five times in his last 10 games. In the last seven days, Tatis has a .574 xwOBA, which ranks 4th in MLB. He’s one of the hottest hitters in baseball, set for a matchup against Tanner Bibee. 

Bibee has struggled with home runs this season, allowing a 1.43 HR/9. Given that Tatis has been locked in at the plate, it’s a good time to ride with him here. Bet on Tatis to hit No. 14 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.

Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds

Jac Caglianone is currently slashing .274/.325/.494 with 22 home runs in 446 plate appearances. The 23-year-old looks like a budding star at the plate, featuring a 14.8% barrel rate.  

Caglianone has been mashing at the plate, homering four times in his last seven games. That’s good news in a great matchup today, as he’s going up against Ryan Johnson, who has a 5.54 xERA and a 2.29 HR/9 this season.

As with the other players on this list, it’s a combination of a hot hitter facing a pitcher having issues with home runs this year. Let’s go with Caglianone to hit No. 23 here. Risk 0.1 units. 

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Photo Credit: REUTERS