MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Sunday, August 2, 2026
We had our second consecutive winning night in home run props, as both Jac Caglianone and Matt Olson homered, making up for a loss on Spencer Torkelson. Let’s try to make it three in a row on the Sunday slate.
Today, we’re going with Isaac Paredes, Kyle Karros, and Kevin McGonigle. Each of these hitters is swinging a hot bat and in the right game environment to go yard today.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 73-274 (+1.25 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, August 2
Isaac Paredes Home Run Odds
Isaac Paredes is currently slashing .257/.352/.428 with 15 home runs in 443 plate appearances. This is a hitter with three seasons of .200+ ISO, so there’s a track record for power here. He’s hit safely in each of his last three games, including a home run on Friday night.
Paredes has been a much better hitter at home, where he has a 141 wRC+ (105 wRC+ on the road). He’s done most of his damage there when it comes to the long ball, as 10 of his 15 homers have been at home. What’s interesting is that all 10 of those big flies at home have come vs. righties.
He’ll get one tonight in Rangers’ right-hander Kumar Rocker, who has a 4.57 xERA and a 1.14 HR/9 this season. Rocker has given up at least one homer in three of his last four outings, including three dingers against these Astros on July 11th.
While Paredes wasn’t one of the hitters who homered off Rocker in that game, I like the value on him here. You can get Paredes at nearly +500 odds at the time of this article. That’s the kind of price I can’t pass up, especially with how Paredes is hitting at home.
We’ll take him to hit No. 16 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Kyle Karros Home Run Odds
Kyle Karros is currently slashing .266/.365/.429 with nine home runs in 359 plate appearances. We saw him put up a .175 ISO in his time in the minors this year, so there’s some decent power in this bat. Karros is coming in hot, with back-to-back multi-hit games.
You have to love the spot at Coors Field in a game with a 12-run total. Karros has a .171 ISO at home (.155 ISO on the road). He’s going up against Seth Lugo, who has a 5.36 xERA and a 1.09 HR/9 this season. Lugo had a stretch where he allowed eight homers in four starts this season, so this can be an issue for him.
Looking at the hitters in this game, Karros sticks out as one of the values. At the time of this article, you can get longer than +500 odds on him here. Considering that he’s heating up at the plate, that’s worth a look in my eyes.
Ride with Karros to hit his 10th homer of the year today. Risk 0.1 units.
Kevin McGonigle Home Run Odds
Kevin McGonigle came into the season as the consensus No. 2 prospect behind Konnor Griffin, and he hasn’t disappointed on those lofty expectations. The Tigers’ shortstop is slashing .285/.389/.424 with 10 home runs in 475 plate appearances. He’s heating up at the plate, homering in each of his last two games.
He’ll get another game at Sutter Health Park, which is one of the most homer-friendly environments in MLB. It’s another projected high-scoring game today, with the total set at 11 runs. Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high 90s, which is ideal hitting weather. We could see the ball fly out of the park here.
While it’s a lefty-vs-lefty matchup vs. Gage Jump, McGonigle still has a respectable 101 wRC+ vs. lefties. Plus, it’s unlikely Jump will pitch deep into this game. We’re getting longer than +400 odds on McGonigle here, making him worth a look. Risk 0.1 units.
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