MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Sunday, August 9, 2026

We got shut out in home run props on Saturday, as Willson Contreras and Pete Crow-Armstrong each failed to go yard. George Springer was out of the lineup, so that bet was void.

Today, we’re going with Jarren Duran, Owen Caissie, and Michael Busch. I like the spots for each of these hitters.

Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 75-290 (+0.47 units)

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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, August 9

Jarren Duran Home Run Odds

Jarren Duran is having a disappointing season, slashing .202/.260/.357 with 16 home runs in 464 plate appearances. His strikeout rate has increased from 24.3% to 28.7%, but at least his barrel rate remains at a respectable 10.1%. We’re seeing some encouraging signs from Duran at the plate lately.

Since July 24th, Duran is slashing .281/.317/.456 with three home runs in 61 plate appearances. All three of those home runs have come in the last six games. That’s good news for his matchup against the A’s today.

The A’s are going with J.T. Ginn, who has been much worse vs. lefties like Duran (.333 wOBA) compared to righties (.224 wOBA) this season. Duran will also have an opportunity to get to an abysmal Athletics’ bullpen, which has a 4.59 xERA on the reason, ranking 25th in MLB.

This is a projected high-scoring game, as highlighted by the 9.5-run total. We’re getting Duran at a reasonable price at longer than +450 odds at the time of this article. With that in mind, we’ll go with Duran to hit No. 17 here. Risk 0.1 units.

Owen Caissie Home Run Odds

Owen Caissie has provided some power for the Marlins as one of the key pieces of the trade that sent Edward Cabrera to the Cubs. The 24-year-old outfielder is slashing .226/.288/.432 with 12 home runs in 264 plate appearances. He’s put up an impressive .205 ISO and a 15.1% barrel rate.

As a left-handed hitter, Caissie is much better against righties, putting up a .227 ISO against them (.065 ISO vs. lefties). He’ll get one today in Grayson Rodriguez, who has a 7.21 xERA and a 1.59 HR/9 on the season.

While Grayson didn’t allow a homer in his last outing, he gave up a combined five homers in his previous three starts. That’s what makes this the kind of matchup I want to target with home run props.

It’s also worth noting that Grayson is a lot worse vs. lefties like Caissie (.405 wOBA) compared to righties (.352 wOBA), making this one even more appealing.

We’re getting longer than +450 odds on Caissie at the time of this article, so we’ll take a shot on him hitting No. 13 here. Risk 0.1 units.

Michael Busch Home Run Odds

Michael Busch is currently slashing .244/.356/.391 with 14 home runs in 526 plate appearances. His barrel rate has plummeted from 17.1% to 9.4%. He has only one home run since July 20th.

But this is the case where I’m targeting a Cub with a reasonable price (longer than +400 odds) in a favorable game environment. Their matchup against the Royals has a 10-run total with Randy Dobnak on the mound.

Dobnak is ripe for regression, putting up a 1.16 ERA despite a 4.87 xERA. Playing at a hitter-friendly environment like Kauffman Stadium can be exactly what Busch needs to get going.

He’ll also have a chance to get to the Royals’ bullpen, which has a 4.93 xERA on the season, ranking 29th in MLB.

With that in mind, we’ll take Busch to hit No. 15 here. Risk 0.1 units.

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