MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Sunday, August 9, 2026
We got shut out in home run props on Saturday, as Willson Contreras and Pete Crow-Armstrong each failed to go yard. George Springer was out of the lineup, so that bet was void.
Today, we’re going with Jarren Duran, Owen Caissie, and Michael Busch. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
Click any odds below to place a wager. For more sportsbook promos, we highly recommend checking out the best sports betting sites.
2026 MLB HR Props Record: 75-290 (+0.47 units)
Top Options For MLB Trading
Sign Up & Unlock Your Offer at FanDuel Predicts
Make Predictions on Real World Events Right in Your Phone
Trade on Sports to Culture, Financials, Crypto and More
Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus
Live Trade with the Biggest Payouts at the Largest Prediction Market in the World
Use Bonus Code: LINEUPS
America's #1 Sports Prediction Market
Same Sports Moments, Bigger Payouts
Choose from Straights, Player Props, Parlays & More
Use Exclusive Code: LINEUPS
Complete a Task in the Crypto.com App to Unlock up to 1 Bitcoin Worth of CRO Rewards
America’s All-In-One Trading Platform
Manage Your Crypto, Stocks, Predictions & Card Spend Seamlessly
Get $150 in Bonuses Paid Over 14 Days
DraftKings is Now Available Nationwide
Browse Markets like Sports, Crypto, Tech & More
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, August 9
Jarren Duran Home Run Odds
Jarren Duran is having a disappointing season, slashing .202/.260/.357 with 16 home runs in 464 plate appearances. His strikeout rate has increased from 24.3% to 28.7%, but at least his barrel rate remains at a respectable 10.1%. We’re seeing some encouraging signs from Duran at the plate lately.
Since July 24th, Duran is slashing .281/.317/.456 with three home runs in 61 plate appearances. All three of those home runs have come in the last six games. That’s good news for his matchup against the A’s today.
The A’s are going with J.T. Ginn, who has been much worse vs. lefties like Duran (.333 wOBA) compared to righties (.224 wOBA) this season. Duran will also have an opportunity to get to an abysmal Athletics’ bullpen, which has a 4.59 xERA on the reason, ranking 25th in MLB.
This is a projected high-scoring game, as highlighted by the 9.5-run total. We’re getting Duran at a reasonable price at longer than +450 odds at the time of this article. With that in mind, we’ll go with Duran to hit No. 17 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Owen Caissie Home Run Odds
Owen Caissie has provided some power for the Marlins as one of the key pieces of the trade that sent Edward Cabrera to the Cubs. The 24-year-old outfielder is slashing .226/.288/.432 with 12 home runs in 264 plate appearances. He’s put up an impressive .205 ISO and a 15.1% barrel rate.
As a left-handed hitter, Caissie is much better against righties, putting up a .227 ISO against them (.065 ISO vs. lefties). He’ll get one today in Grayson Rodriguez, who has a 7.21 xERA and a 1.59 HR/9 on the season.
While Grayson didn’t allow a homer in his last outing, he gave up a combined five homers in his previous three starts. That’s what makes this the kind of matchup I want to target with home run props.
It’s also worth noting that Grayson is a lot worse vs. lefties like Caissie (.405 wOBA) compared to righties (.352 wOBA), making this one even more appealing.
We’re getting longer than +450 odds on Caissie at the time of this article, so we’ll take a shot on him hitting No. 13 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Michael Busch Home Run Odds
Michael Busch is currently slashing .244/.356/.391 with 14 home runs in 526 plate appearances. His barrel rate has plummeted from 17.1% to 9.4%. He has only one home run since July 20th.
But this is the case where I’m targeting a Cub with a reasonable price (longer than +400 odds) in a favorable game environment. Their matchup against the Royals has a 10-run total with Randy Dobnak on the mound.
Dobnak is ripe for regression, putting up a 1.16 ERA despite a 4.87 xERA. Playing at a hitter-friendly environment like Kauffman Stadium can be exactly what Busch needs to get going.
He’ll also have a chance to get to the Royals’ bullpen, which has a 4.93 xERA on the season, ranking 29th in MLB.
With that in mind, we’ll take Busch to hit No. 15 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Join Lineups’ free sports betting Discord channel, with more than 5,100 community members discussing MLB 24-7-365.
Best Sportsbook Promos For Home Run Prop Predictions
Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Use Bonus Code: BETLINEUPS
Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days (Up to $1,000 Bet Reset Tokens)
Available on Desktop, Android & iOS
Easy Deposits, Fast Withdrawals
Get a 100% Bet Match up to $100 in FanCash for 10 Days
Earn FanCash & Spend it on Team Swag or More Bets
Daily Odds & Profit Boosts on Select Games
To Claim: Use LINEUPS
Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets Within 14 Days
Plus Get up to $1,000 Deposit Bonus
Bet on All Your Favorite Sports With America's Top-Rated Sportsbook
To Claim: Click Play Now
Bet $10 Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose
30% Extra on Same Game Parlay Profit
T&Cs Apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (AZ, CO, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MD, MI, MO, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only. Please gamble responsibly. Must be present in AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA(select parishes) /MD/MI/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA.
Use Bonus Code: LINEUPSBET
Photo Credit: IMAGN IMAGES
