MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Sunday, July 26, 2026
We got shut out on Saturday, as Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, and Heriberto Hernandez each failed to hit home runs. We need to snap out of the cold streak today.
Today’s picks include Jackson Chourio, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Jackson Merrill. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 67-261 (+0.53 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, July 26
Jackson Chourio Home Run Odds
Jackson Chourio is currently slashing .275/.333/.467 with 13 home runs in 318 plate appearances. He’s increased his barrel rate from 9.7% to 12.2% this season, which is encouraging. While Chourio hasn’t homered since July 4th, I like the spot for him today.
He’ll be going up against Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland, who has a 5.62 xERA and a 1.91 HR/9 this season. Righties have absolutely crushed Freeland, putting up a .407 wOBA against him (.337 wOBA vs. lefties). That’s great news for Chourio because he has a 142 wRC+ vs. lefties (110 wRC+ vs. righties).
Chourio also has some familiarity with Freeland, putting up one home run and a .766 expected slugging percentage in 12 career plate appearances.
Considering these factors, we’ll ride with Chourio to hit No. 14 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand Home Run Odds
Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been a nice pickup for the Orioles. He’s been scorching hot in a small sample, slashing .375/.400/.792 with three home runs in 26 plate appearances. This includes an incredible 21.1% barrel rate.
The former Reds’ first baseman has three home runs in his last five games. During this stretch, he has a .506 xwOBA, which ranks 3rd in MLB. Needless to say, Encarnacion-Strand has been crushing the ball lately.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Braves’ right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, who has a 4.87 xERA and a 1.36 HR/9 this season. With how hot Encarnacion-Strand has been at the plate, this could be a spot where he hits No. 4.
Ride with Encarnacion-Strand to homer here. Risk 0.1 units.
Jackson Merrill Home Run Odds
Jackson Merrill has had another disappointing season, slashing .228/.282/.382 with 14 home runs in 429 plate appearances. His barrel rate has decreased from 13.0% to 10.2%, while his ISO has gone from .193 to .154.
However, there are some encouraging signs lately, as Merrill has been on fire at the plate. The Padres’ outfielder has four home runs in his last seven games. During this stretch, he has a .481 xwOBA, which ranks 6th in MLB.
Up next is a matchup against Marlins’ right-hander Janson Junk, who has had issues with the long ball, allowing a 1.43 HR/9 this season. Junk has given up two homers in three of his last five starts.
With how well Merrill is swinging the bat lately, it’s a good time to hop on board this train. Let’s bet on him to hit No. 15 today. Risk 0.1 units.
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