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It was another profitable night on Saturday, as Rafael Devers and Hunter Goodman each went yard, making up for a miss on Jordan Walker.
Today, we’re going with Kyle Schwarber, Jo Adell, and Shohei Ohtani. Each of these hitters is in a good spot to go yard.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 55-207 (+1.38 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, June 28
Kyle Schwarber Home Run Odds
Kyle Schwarber is currently slashing .253/.370/.584 with 29 home runs in 351 plate appearances. He has homered five times in his last 10 games, so it’s a good time to ride with him here.
Up next is a matchup against Mets’ lefty Cionel Perez. Despite the lefty-vs-lefty matchup, I’m still going with Schwarber. For one, Perez won’t go deep into games. On top of that, he has a 6.37 xERA with a 1.47 HR/9, so this is a great spot. If that’s not enough, Schwarber has had success vs. Perez, going 3-for-6 with one home run and a 1.586 expected slugging percentage.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Schwarber to hit No. 30 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Jo Adell Home Run Odds
Jo Adell is slashing .252/.297/.405 with 11 home runs in 350 plate appearances. His barrel rate has plummeted from 17.2% to 8.5% this year.
However, we have to remember that this is a guy who homered 37 times last season. There’s still power in this bat, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets going. In fact, it may already be happening.
We saw Adell homer on June 26th and then get two hits last night, so perhaps this is the start of a hot streak. On top of that, he’s had some success against Aaron Civale in the past, hitting one home run with a .647 expected slugging percentage in nine plate appearances.
Considering these circumstances, we’ll go with Adell to hit No. 12 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Shohei Ohtani Home Run Odds
Shohei Ohtani is currently slashing .296/.412/.542 with 17 home runs in 349 plate appearances. Believe it or not, these are underwhelming numbers compared to what Ohtani usually does.
However, we’ve seen him start to heat up in June, where he’s slashing .338/.441/.675 with seven home runs. He’s starting to look like the Ohtani we all know and love, at least at the plate (he’s been dominant on the mound).
I like the matchup here against Michael King. This is a pitcher with a 4.69 xERA and a 9.4% barrel rate allowed. On top of that, Ohtani has crushed King throughout his career, homering three times with a 1.174 expected slugging percentage in 21 plate appearances.
Considering that Ohtani has been red-hot in June and is facing a pitcher who he’s crushed in the past, we’ll ride with him to go yard here. Risk 0.1 units.
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Photo Credit: AP/Caroline Brehman
