MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Thursday, August 13, 2026

We got shut out in home run props yet again on Wednesday, as Jac Caglianone, Eugenio Suarez, and Wilyer Abreu each failed to go yard. We’re on our coldest stretch of the season, desperate for a winning night on the Thursday slate. 

Today, we’re going with Royce Lewis, Zach Neto, and Jackson Chourio. I like the spots for each of these hitters.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 75-302 (-0.73 units)

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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, August 13

Royce Lewis Home Run Odds

Royce Lewis is currently slashing .245/.317/.433 with 13 home runs in 357 plate appearances. This includes impressive batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 12.1% barrel rate. 

Lewis has been swinging the bat well lately, slashing .413/.438/.674 with two home runs im August. He has five two-hit games in his last six, so he’s completely locked in at the plate.

You have to like the matchup tonight, as he’s going up against Aaron Nola, who has a 4.26 xERA and a 2.09 HR/9 this season. Home runs have been a major issue for the veteran right-hander all year long. He has allowed at least one homer in 10 of his last 11 starts.

We can get Lewis to homer at longer than +450 odds at the time of this article, which is an appealing price considering his current form and this exploitable matchup. Risk 0.1 units.

Zach Neto Home Run Odds

Zach Neto is currently slashing .224/.309/.414 with 20 home runs in 528 plate appearances. It’s been a disappointing season for Neto, but at least he still has an 11.6% barrel rate. We saw him recently homer on August 6th, so perhaps he’s slowly getting on track. 

At first glance, tonight’s matchup against Jacob deGrom is a tough one. But after digging a bit deeper, you can see why it looks appealing. The Rangers’ ace has quietly had issues with home runs this season, as highlighted by a 1.29 HR/9. 

On top of that, Neto has crushed deGrom throughout his career. In 14 plate appearances, he has two home runs with a .411 xwOBA. That’s the kind of batter-vs-pitcher data that I can’t pass up here.

We’re getting Neto to homer at longer than +450 odds at the time of this article, which is a nice price, so we’ll take the plunge. Risk 0.1 units.

Jackson Chourio Home Run Odds

Jackson Chourio is currently slashing .275/.338/.473 with 17 home runs in 393 plate appearances. This includes impressive batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 13.3% barrel rate.

Chourio comes into this one in top form, having homered four times in his last nine games. That’s good news for tonight’s matchup vs. Roki Sasaki, who has struggled with the long ball, featuring a 1.80 HR/9.

We should also note that Chourio has performed well vs. Sasaki in his career. In a small sample, he’s gone 2-for-4 with two doubles and a .571 xwOBA. You can get him at longer than +350 odds at the time of this article. Risk 0.1 units.

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Photo Credit: REUTERS