MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Thursday, August 13, 2026

We got shut out in home run props yet again on Wednesday, as Jac Caglianone, Eugenio Suarez, and Wilyer Abreu each failed to go yard. We’re on our coldest stretch of the season, desperate for a winning night on the Thursday slate. 

Today, we’re going with Royce Lewis, Zach Neto, and Jackson Chourio. I like the spots for each of these hitters.

Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.

Click any odds below to place a wager. For more sportsbook promos, we highly recommend checking out the best sports betting sites.

2026 MLB HR Props Record: 75-302 (-0.73 units)

Top Options For MLB Trading

1

4.5/5 Rating

$100 In Predicts Bonus

$100 In Predicts Bonus

FanDuel Predicts Review

T&CS Apply. View Here.

Offered by FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC, a registered futures commission merchant. 18+ and present in select states. First real money trade only. First-time deposit required. Min. $1 trade required for 5 consecutive days for max bonus. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable Predicts Bonus that expires 24 hours after receipt. Restrictions apply. Trading derivatives involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Manage your activity with our Consumer Protection tools. See terms, including eligible states, at: http://fanduel.com/predicts/new-customer-offer.

• Get $100 in Predicts Bonus When You Trade $1 for 5 Days

• Make Predictions on Real World Events Right in Your Phone

• Trade on Sports to Culture, Financials, Crypto and More

FanDuel Predicts Review

4.5/5 Rating

T&CS Apply. View Here.

Offered by FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC, a registered futures commission merchant. 18+ and present in select states. First real money trade only. First-time deposit required. Min. $1 trade required for 5 consecutive days for max bonus. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable Predicts Bonus that expires 24 hours after receipt. Restrictions apply. Trading derivatives involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Manage your activity with our Consumer Protection tools. See terms, including eligible states, at: http://fanduel.com/predicts/new-customer-offer.

• Get $100 in Predicts Bonus When You Trade $1 for 5 Days

• Make Predictions on Real World Events Right in Your Phone

• Trade on Sports to Culture, Financials, Crypto and More

Trade Now No Code Needed

2

4.3/5 Rating

Trade $25, Get $25 Sign Up, Deposit, and Trade with OG

Trade $25, Get $25 Sign Up, Deposit, and Trade with OG

OG Review

• Huge Range of CFTC-Approved Markets (Sports, Tech, and More)

• Compete with Others & Climb the Leaderboards

• No User Limiting on Trades

OG Review

4.3/5 Rating

• Huge Range of CFTC-Approved Markets (Sports, Tech, and More)

• Compete with Others & Climb the Leaderboards

• No User Limiting on Trades

Trade Now

Copy promo code LINEUPS

3

4.4/5 Rating

$50 Bonus On First Deposit

$50 Bonus On First Deposit

Polymarket Review

T&Cs Apply. View Here.

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization.

• Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus

• Live Trade with the Biggest Payouts at the Largest Prediction Market in the World

Polymarket Review

4.4/5 Rating

T&Cs Apply. View Here.

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization.

• Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus

• Live Trade with the Biggest Payouts at the Largest Prediction Market in the World

Trade Now

Copy promo code LINEUPS

4

4.1/5 Rating

Trade $50, Get $75 In Trading Bonus

Trade $50, Get $75 In Trading Bonus

ProphetX Review

• America's #1 Sports Prediction Market

• Same Sports Moments, Bigger Payouts

• Choose from Straights, Player Props, Parlays & More

ProphetX Review

4.1/5 Rating

• America's #1 Sports Prediction Market

• Same Sports Moments, Bigger Payouts

• Choose from Straights, Player Props, Parlays & More

Trade Now

Copy promo code LINEUPS

5

4.2/5 Rating

Spend $5+, Get $150 In Trading Bonuses

Spend $5+, Get $150 In Trading Bonuses

DraftKings Predictions Review

T&Cs Apply. View Here.

Event Contract Trading is offered by DraftKings Predictions, a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and NFA member. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Market availability varies. Eligibility restrictions apply. 1 per new DraftKings customer. $5+ first-time trade req. Max. $150 issued as non-withdrawable Predictions Dollars that expire in 1 year. Reward issued as $50 in Predictions Dollars every 7 days via click-to-claim for 14 days. Click-to-claims expire 7 days after issuance. 7 days = 168hrs. Terms: dkng.co/predictionspromo. Ends 10/18/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

• Get $150 in Bonuses Paid Over 14 Days

• DraftKings is Now Available Nationwide

• Browse Markets like Sports, Crypto, Tech & More

DraftKings Predictions Review

4.2/5 Rating

T&Cs Apply. View Here.

Event Contract Trading is offered by DraftKings Predictions, a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and NFA member. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Market availability varies. Eligibility restrictions apply. 1 per new DraftKings customer. $5+ first-time trade req. Max. $150 issued as non-withdrawable Predictions Dollars that expire in 1 year. Reward issued as $50 in Predictions Dollars every 7 days via click-to-claim for 14 days. Click-to-claims expire 7 days after issuance. 7 days = 168hrs. Terms: dkng.co/predictionspromo. Ends 10/18/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

• Get $150 in Bonuses Paid Over 14 Days

• DraftKings is Now Available Nationwide

• Browse Markets like Sports, Crypto, Tech & More

Trade Now No Code Needed

6

4.5/5 Rating

Earn up to 1 BTC In CRO Rewards

Earn up to 1 BTC In CRO Rewards

Crypto.com Review

• Complete a Task in the Crypto.com App to Unlock up to 1 Bitcoin Worth of CRO Rewards

• America’s All-In-One Trading Platform

• Manage Your Crypto, Stocks, Predictions & Card Spend Seamlessly

Crypto.com Review

4.5/5 Rating

• Complete a Task in the Crypto.com App to Unlock up to 1 Bitcoin Worth of CRO Rewards

• America’s All-In-One Trading Platform

• Manage Your Crypto, Stocks, Predictions & Card Spend Seamlessly

Trade Now No Code Needed

Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, August 13

Royce Lewis Home Run Odds

Royce Lewis is currently slashing .245/.317/.433 with 13 home runs in 357 plate appearances. This includes impressive batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 12.1% barrel rate. 

Lewis has been swinging the bat well lately, slashing .413/.438/.674 with two home runs im August. He has five two-hit games in his last six, so he’s completely locked in at the plate.

You have to like the matchup tonight, as he’s going up against Aaron Nola, who has a 4.26 xERA and a 2.09 HR/9 this season. Home runs have been a major issue for the veteran right-hander all year long. He has allowed at least one homer in 10 of his last 11 starts.

We can get Lewis to homer at longer than +450 odds at the time of this article, which is an appealing price considering his current form and this exploitable matchup. Risk 0.1 units.

Zach Neto Home Run Odds

Zach Neto is currently slashing .224/.309/.414 with 20 home runs in 528 plate appearances. It’s been a disappointing season for Neto, but at least he still has an 11.6% barrel rate. We saw him recently homer on August 6th, so perhaps he’s slowly getting on track. 

At first glance, tonight’s matchup against Jacob deGrom is a tough one. But after digging a bit deeper, you can see why it looks appealing. The Rangers’ ace has quietly had issues with home runs this season, as highlighted by a 1.29 HR/9. 

On top of that, Neto has crushed deGrom throughout his career. In 14 plate appearances, he has two home runs with a .411 xwOBA. That’s the kind of batter-vs-pitcher data that I can’t pass up here.

We’re getting Neto to homer at longer than +450 odds at the time of this article, which is a nice price, so we’ll take the plunge. Risk 0.1 units.

Jackson Chourio Home Run Odds

Jackson Chourio is currently slashing .275/.338/.473 with 17 home runs in 393 plate appearances. This includes impressive batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 13.3% barrel rate.

Chourio comes into this one in top form, having homered four times in his last nine games. That’s good news for tonight’s matchup vs. Roki Sasaki, who has struggled with the long ball, featuring a 1.80 HR/9.

We should also note that Chourio has performed well vs. Sasaki in his career. In a small sample, he’s gone 2-for-4 with two doubles and a .571 xwOBA. You can get him at longer than +350 odds at the time of this article. Risk 0.1 units.

Join Lineups’ free sports betting Discord channel, with more than 5,100 community members discussing MLB 24-7-365.

Photo Credit: REUTERS