MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Thursday, August 6, 2026
We got shut out on Wednesday, as Salvador Perez, Luis Garcia Jr., and Dylan Crews each failed to hit a home run. Let’s try to avoid a three-day losing streak with a profitable result on Thursday.
Today, we’re going with Coby Mayo, JJ Bleday, and Brandon Marsh. I like the spot for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 74-284 (+0.76 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, August 6
Coby Mayo Home Run Odds
Coby Mayo came into Wednesday’s action with a .201/.268/.417 slash with 14 home runs in 284 plate appearances. While strikeouts have been a major issue (33.8%), he’s hitting the ball relatively hard (11.6% barrel rate). We saw Mayo homer on Wednesday night. I’m betting that he can go yard in back-to-back games.
It’s a good matchup against Angels’ right-hander Ryan Johnson, who has a 5.33 xERA and a 2.35 HR/9. Johnson has given up at least one home run in eight of his last nine starts. Of those nine outings, Johnson has allowed two homers on three occasions. That’s bad news in a hitter’s park like Camden Yards.
On top of that, Johnson throws a sinker 26% of the time. This pitch has gotten absolutely crushed this season (.526 xwOBA). This fits right into Mayo’s wheelhouse, as he has a .400 xwOBA against sinkers this year.
Given this favorable matchup, we’ll bet on Mayo to hit No. 15 here. Risk 0.1 units.
JJ Bleday Home Run Odds
JJ Bleday has been a surprise contributor for the Reds this season, slashing .228/.343/.463 with 19 home runs in 354 plate appearances. This includes a 10.2% barrel rate with a 21.2% strikeout rate, so he’s hitting the ball hard while keeping his strikeouts in check.
Bleday has two homers in his last seven games, so he’s coming into this matchup vs. the Athletics in good form. It also helps that this game is at Great American Ball Park, which is one of the most homer-friendly environments in MLB. This season, Bleday has a 146 wRC+ at home (88 wRC+ on the road).
The A’s are sending out Mason Barnett for this matchup. The 25-year-old righty has a 1.52 HR/9 this season. Barnett throws a curveball 11.9% of the time. This pitch has a .384 xwOBA this season. Bleday has done well against curveballs, putting up a .453 xwOBA.
With that in mind, we’ll go with Bleday to hit No. 20 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Brandon Marsh Home Run Odds
Brandon Marsh is slashing .279/.318/.450 with 16 home runs in 425 plate appearances this season. While he hasn’t homered since July 20th, I love this spot at home against Miles Mikolas.
The veteran right-hander has a 5.38 xERA and a 2.17 HR/9 this season. Mikolas has allowed a combined five home runs in his last two starts. Simply put, he’s one of the worst pitchers in MLB right now.
Mikolas throws a four-seamer 24.6% of the time, allowing a .368 xwOBA. He also has a sinker (24.6% usage) which has similarly gotten hit hard (.378 xwOBA). Marsh has a .362 xwOBA against four-seamers and a .412 xwOBA vs. sinkers this year. That’s the kind of matchup that I want to exploit when targeting home run props.
Add in the fact that this game is in a hitter-friendly environment like Citizens Bank Park, and you can see why this is an appealing wager. Let’s take Marsh to hit No. 17 here. Risk 0.1 units.
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