MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Thursday, July 23, 2026

We got shut out on Wednesday, as Wyatt Langford, Mookie Betts, and Chase DeLauter each failed to hit home runs. We’ll try to get back on track with a small Thursday slate. With only five games on tap, we’re only going with two home run props for today instead of our usual three.

Today’s picks include Austin Riley and Victor Mesa Jr. Each of these hitters checks all the boxes you’re looking for in a home run prop. That is, strong recent performance, favorable pricing, and an exploitable matchup.

Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 67-253 (+1.23 units) 

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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, July 23

Austin Riley Home Run Odds

Austin Riley has been one of the most disappointing hitters in baseball this season, slashing .213/.294/.355 with 12 home runs in 405 plate appearances heading into Wednesday’s action. This includes an abysmal 28.9% strikeout rate, but at least Riley still has a respectable 11.4% barrel rate.

Remember, this is a hitter with a strong track record, including 33+ home runs from 2021 to 2023. At 29 years old, it’s unlikely that he’s just completely declined as a hitter. More likely, Riley has been in an extended rut that he can break out of at any time. In fact, it’s already happening.

In the last seven days, Riley has a .584 xwOBA, which ranks 2nd in MLB. This means that he’s hitting the ball extremely hard. We see that reflected in his results, as Riley has three home runs in his last five games. This puts him at a .213 ISO for July, which is the best of the season for him.

I like riding with Riley in a favorable spot against Padres’ right-hander Griffin Canning, who has a 4.94 xERA and a 1.37 HR/9 on the season. This is a pitcher who gives up a ton of hard contact, as highlighted by a 9.9% barrel rate. On top of that, Riley has a .608 xwOBA in five career plate appearances vs. Canning.

Then, you have to consider the pricing. We’re getting Riley at nearly +500 odds for this matchup (at the time of this article). With that in mind, ride with Riley to hit No. 13 here. Risk 0.1 units.

Victor Mesa Jr. Home Run Odds

Victor Mesa Jr. is currently slashing .218/.304/.475 with eight home runs in 116 plate appearances. This includes three homers in his last four games. We saw Mesa Jr. put up a 149 wRC+ in 81 plate appearances at Triple-A earlier this year, so perhaps this is a case of a 24-year-old finding his groove at the big league level.

Up next is a matchup against Blue Jays’ right-hander Shane Bieber, who has an 8.56 xERA and a 2.66 HR/9 in 23.2 innings this season. Bieber has gotten crushed so far, featuring an 11.7% barrel rate. He’s given up at least one home run in four of five outings, including three vs. the Astros on June 23rd.

Considering how hot Mesa Jr. has been at the plate, this is a good spot to ride the wave. Risk 0.1 units.

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