MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Thursday, July 23, 2026
We got shut out on Wednesday, as Wyatt Langford, Mookie Betts, and Chase DeLauter each failed to hit home runs. We’ll try to get back on track with a small Thursday slate. With only five games on tap, we’re only going with two home run props for today instead of our usual three.
Today’s picks include Austin Riley and Victor Mesa Jr. Each of these hitters checks all the boxes you’re looking for in a home run prop. That is, strong recent performance, favorable pricing, and an exploitable matchup.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
Click any odds below to place a wager. For more sportsbook promos, we highly recommend checking out the best sports betting sites.
2026 MLB HR Props Record: 67-253 (+1.23 units)
Top Options For MLB Trading
Sign up for FanDuel Predicts & Get a $25 Trading Bonus
Make Predictions on Real World Events Right in Your Phone
Trade on Sports to Culture, Financials, Crypto and More
Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus
Live Trade with the Biggest Payouts at the Largest Prediction Market in the World
Use Bonus Code: LINEUPS
America's #1 Sports Prediction Market
Same Sports Moments, Bigger Payouts
Choose from Straights, Player Props, Parlays & More
Use Exclusive Code: LINEUPS
Complete a Task in the Crypto.com App to Unlock up to 1 Bitcoin Worth of CRO Rewards
America’s All-In-One Trading Platform
Manage Your Crypto, Stocks, Predictions & Card Spend Seamlessly
Get $200 in Bonuses Paid Over 21 Days
DraftKings is Now Available Nationwide
Browse Markets like Sports, Crypto, Tech & More
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, July 23
Austin Riley Home Run Odds
Austin Riley has been one of the most disappointing hitters in baseball this season, slashing .213/.294/.355 with 12 home runs in 405 plate appearances heading into Wednesday’s action. This includes an abysmal 28.9% strikeout rate, but at least Riley still has a respectable 11.4% barrel rate.
Remember, this is a hitter with a strong track record, including 33+ home runs from 2021 to 2023. At 29 years old, it’s unlikely that he’s just completely declined as a hitter. More likely, Riley has been in an extended rut that he can break out of at any time. In fact, it’s already happening.
In the last seven days, Riley has a .584 xwOBA, which ranks 2nd in MLB. This means that he’s hitting the ball extremely hard. We see that reflected in his results, as Riley has three home runs in his last five games. This puts him at a .213 ISO for July, which is the best of the season for him.
I like riding with Riley in a favorable spot against Padres’ right-hander Griffin Canning, who has a 4.94 xERA and a 1.37 HR/9 on the season. This is a pitcher who gives up a ton of hard contact, as highlighted by a 9.9% barrel rate. On top of that, Riley has a .608 xwOBA in five career plate appearances vs. Canning.
Then, you have to consider the pricing. We’re getting Riley at nearly +500 odds for this matchup (at the time of this article). With that in mind, ride with Riley to hit No. 13 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Victor Mesa Jr. Home Run Odds
Victor Mesa Jr. is currently slashing .218/.304/.475 with eight home runs in 116 plate appearances. This includes three homers in his last four games. We saw Mesa Jr. put up a 149 wRC+ in 81 plate appearances at Triple-A earlier this year, so perhaps this is a case of a 24-year-old finding his groove at the big league level.
Up next is a matchup against Blue Jays’ right-hander Shane Bieber, who has an 8.56 xERA and a 2.66 HR/9 in 23.2 innings this season. Bieber has gotten crushed so far, featuring an 11.7% barrel rate. He’s given up at least one home run in four of five outings, including three vs. the Astros on June 23rd.
Considering how hot Mesa Jr. has been at the plate, this is a good spot to ride the wave. Risk 0.1 units.
Join Lineups’ free sports betting Discord channel, with more than 5,100 community members discussing MLB 24-7-365.
Best Sportsbook Promos For Home Run Prop Predictions
Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Use Bonus Code: BETLINEUPS
Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days (Up to $1,000 Bet Reset Tokens)
Available on Desktop, Android & iOS
Easy Deposits, Fast Withdrawals
Bet $1, Double Your Winnings on Your Next 10 Wagers (Up to $25 Max Bet Per Boost)
Stream NFL Games In-App for Free
OH only. 21+.Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET
Use Promo Code: LINEUPSDYW
Get a 100% Bet Match up to $100 in FanCash for 10 Days
Earn FanCash & Spend it on Team Swag or More Bets
Daily Odds & Profit Boosts on Select Games
To Claim: Use LINEUPS
Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets Within 14 Days
Plus Get up to $1,000 Deposit Bonus
Bet on All Your Favorite Sports With America's Top-Rated Sportsbook
To Claim: Click Play Now
Bet $10 Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose
30% Extra on Same Game Parlay Profit
T&Cs Apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-MY-RESET. 21+
Use Bonus Code: LINEUPSBET
Photo Credit: IMAGN IMAGES
