MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Thursday, July 30, 2026
We got shut out on Wednesday, losing on Ceddanne Rafaela, Tyler Stephenson, and Kyle Tucker. Let’s try to bounce back on the Thursday slate.
Today we’re going with Shohei Ohtani, James Wood, and Brandon Lowe. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 69-270 (+0.45 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, July 30
Shohei Ohtani Home Run Odds
Shohei Ohtani is having a down year by his lofty standards, but he’s still slashing .289/.394/.537 with 23 home runs in 456 plate appearances. Although his barrel rate has fallen from 23.4% to 16.3%, I like the spot for him against Bryan Woo.
Woo has been an absolute disaster on the road, putting up a 6.52 ERA and a 1.24 HR/9 in 58 innings. We’ve seen him allow at least one home run in three of his last five road starts, including two vs. the Orioles on June 11th.
On top of that, Woo has been a lot worse vs. lefties like Ohtani (.313 wOBA) compared to righties (.250 wOBA). We’ve seen Ohtani have success vs. Woo in a small sample, putting up one home run and a .716 expected slugging percentage in eight career plate appearances.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Ohtani to hit his 24th homer of the season in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
James Wood Home Run Odds
James Wood has been terrific for the Nationals this year, slashing .271/.398/.552 with 30 home runs in 513 plate appearances. This includes an otherworldly 21.5% barrel rate. We saw Wood hit two homers vs. the D-Backs on July 26th. I’m betting that he goes yard once again here.
It’s a good spot vs. Braves’ right-hander Grant Holmes, who is giving up a 1.46 HR/9 vs. lefties this season. This is a pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact, as highlighted by an 8.9% barrel rate.
We’ve seen Wood put up good numbers vs. Holmes in a small sample, including one home run and a 1.406 expected slugging percentage in six plate appearances. While Wood to homer is always relatively expensive, I like that we’re getting nearly +250 odds in this favorable matchup.
We’ll go with Wood to hit No. 31 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Brandon Lowe Home Run Odds
Brandon Lowe homered for me on Tuesday, so I’m going back to the well here. The veteran second baseman has been rock-solid in his first year with the Pirates, slashing .253/.321/.485 with 22 home runs in 446 plate appearances. This includes an above-average 12.0% barrel rate.
Lowe is heating up at the plate, going 9-for-19 with one homer in his last four games. That’s good news for this matchup at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, which is one of the most homer-friendly environments in baseball.
The Reds are going with righty Rhett Lowder, who has been crushed by lefties like Lowe (.372 wOBA) way more than righties (.301 wOBA). Given how hot Lowe has been at the plate, it’s a good spot to roll with him here.
Bet on Lowe to hit his 23rd homer of the season tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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