MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Tuesday, August 11, 2026
We got shut out in home run props again on Monday, as Wilyer Abreu, Bo Bichette, and Hunter Goodman each failed to go yard. We’re ice cold right now, looking for a winning night on the Tuesday slate.
Today, we’re going with Spencer Torkelson, Francisco Lindor, and Tyler O’Neill. Each of these hitters has favorable batter-vs-pitcher data against the opposing starter. They’re also swinging the bat well lately.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 75-296 (-0.13 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, August 11
Spencer Torkelson Home Run Odds
Spencer Torkelson is currently slashing .227/.315/.422 with 20 home runs in 464 plate appearances. While the overall slash line is underwhelming, at least he has a 13.1% barrel rate. It’s also worth noting that Torkelson is batting .353 in August so far.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Tanner Bibee, who has a 4.41 xERA in 138 innings this season. The Guardians’ right-hander has had major issues with the long ball this year, as highlighted by a 1.50 HR/9 and 8.8% barrel rate.
Torkelson has had some success against Bibee throughout his career as well. In 25 plate appearances, he has one home run and a .498 expected slugging percentage. With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Tork to hit No. 21 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Francisco Lindor Home Run Odds
Francisco Lindor is currently slashing .242/.327/.439 with 11 home runs in 275 plate appearances. He’s been heating up at the plate, homering five times in his last 14 games, including last night against Bryce Elder and the Braves.
You have to like the matchup against Martin Perez, who is a left-hander with a 4.30 xERA this season. There’s some familiarity here, as Lindor has one home run and a .577 expected slugging percentage in 30 plate appearances vs. Perez.
With Lindor starting to swing a hot bat combined with his career history vs. Perez, we’ll take a shot on him going yard for the second straight night. Ride with Lindor to hit No. 12 on the season here. Risk 0.1 units.
Tyler O’Neill Home Run Odds
Tyler O’Neill is currently slashing .215/.305/.405 with 10 home runs in 226 plate appearances. It’s been an abysmal season, with even his barrel rate plummeting from 16.5% to 9.5%. However, O’Neill is one of the streakiest hitters in MLB, and he’s running hot right now.
The Orioles’ outfielder has four home runs in his last 10 games. It’s perfect timing, as he’s going up against Bailey Ober tonight. The Twins’ right-hander has a 4.39 xERA and a 1.35 HR/9 for the season, so he has issues with home runs.
Then, you have to consider how O’Neill has performed vs. Ober throughout his career. In six plate appearances, he has one home run and a .796 expected slugging percentage. Considering how hot O’Neill has been at the plate, this feels like the ideal spot to take him to hit a home run. Risk 0.1 units.
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