MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Tuesday, August 4, 2026
We hit a nice longshot prop on Daylen Lile to hit a home run on Monday. This easily made up for losses on Kazuma Okamoto and Spencer Jones, so it was a profitable night. Let’s build on that result with the Tuesday slate.
Today, we’re going with Royce Lewis, Griffin Conine, and Isaac Paredes. I like the spot and price for each of these hitters.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 74-278 (+1.36 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, August 4
Royce Lewis Home Run Odds
Royce Lewis was once a hyped hitter who couldn’t stay on the Twins. He had power binges that would have us excited about what he can do in a full season. But the shine has worn off Lewis, as he’s slashing .221/.300/.406 with 12 home runs in 317 plate appearances.
While the overall numbers are underwhelming, it’s encouraging to see that he’s improved his barrel rate from 8.7% to 12.7%. In the last seven days, Lewis has a .479 xwOBA, which is tied for 6th in MLB, so he’s been hitting the ball hard. We’re seeing the results as well, as he’s homered twice in his last three games.
Up next is an exploitable matchup in a hitter’s park at Kauffman Stadium. It’s a projected high-scoring game, as highlighted by the nine-run total. While Randy Dobnak has been a nice surprise for the Royals, putting up a 1.04 ERA, he has a 4.59 xERA, so regression is coming soon.
You have to love that we’re getting longer than +500 odds on Lewis here, so we’ll ride with him to hit his 13th homer of the year. Risk 0.1 units.
Griffin Conine Home Run Odds
Griffin Conine has provided a power boost for the Marlins. The 29-year-old hitter is slashing .270/.357/.548 with 10 home runs in 143 plate appearances. While he has contact issues with a 30.1% strikeout rate, he hits the ball very hard when he connects, including a 16.9% barrel rate.
Conine is also trending in a positive direction. In the last seven days, he has a .459 xwOBA, which ranks 9th in MLB. He’s homered three times during this stretch. As a left-handed hitter, Conine is much better vs. righties, putting up a 167 wRC+ against them (30 wRC+ vs. lefties).
That’s good news for tonight’s matchup against Braves’ righty Grant Holmes, who has a 4.80 xERA and a 1.59 HR/9 on the season. We just saw Holmes give up three home runs in his last outing against the Nationals, so this is a great spot for Conine.
Despite that, we’re getting longer than +500 odds on him here, so let’s take him to hit No. 11. Risk 0.1 units.
Isaac Paredes Home Run Odds
Isaac Paredes is a dependable veteran, slashing .252/.349/.417 with 15 home runs in 458 plate appearances. He’s been hitting the ball hard lately as well. In the last seven days, Paredes has a .455 xwOBA, which ranks 10th in MLB.
During this stretch, he’s homered only once, but I’ll take a shot at him while he’s at home. Paredes has been much better at home, putting up a .211 ISO (.121 ISO. Of his 15 home runs, 10 have come at home. This isn’t surprising because the Crawford Boxes in left field are favorable for right-handed, pull-heavy power hitters like Paredes.
While it’s a tough matchup vs. Blue Jays’ righty Trey Yesavage, we can use that as a buying opportunity, as it’s given us a longer than +500 price on Paredes. Yesavage often has control issues, which could force him out of the game early, allowing Paredes to get to the Blue Jays bullpen.
With that in mind, we’ll take Paredes to hit No. 16 here. Risk 0.1 units.
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