MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Tuesday, July 21, 2026

We had a nice bounce-back on Monday, hitting on Riley Greene and Seiya Suzuki to make up for a miss on James Wood. Let’s build on that result with more profit on Tuesday.

Today, we’re going with Austin Riley, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Wilyer Abreu. I like the spots for each of these hitters.

Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 66-249 (+1.18 units) 

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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, July 21

Austin Riley Home Run Odds

Austin Riley is having a disappointing season, slashing .216/.297/.359 with 12 home runs in 401 plate appearances. However, there are some encouraging signs that he’s finally coming out of his slump.

The Braves’ third baseman has homered three times in his last four games. In the last seven days, he has a .653 xwOBA with five barrels. This feels like the case where a veteran hitter is finally finding his groove at the plate. We want to exploit that.

Up next is a favorable matchup against Walker Buehler, who has a 4.51 xERA and a 1.21 HR/9 on the season. The veteran righty has been really struggling with the long ball lately, allowing seven homers in his last four starts, including three against the Cubs on July 1st.

With that in mind, we’ll take Riley to hit No. 13 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run Odds

Up next is another hitter in the Padres vs Braves game; this time it’s Fernando Tatis Jr., who is similarly having a disappointing season, slashing .282/.346/.390 with seven home runs in 434 plate appearances. Despite the power outage, Tatis still has an 11.1% barrel rate, so he’s hitting the ball hard.

This is especially the case of late. In the last seven days, Tatis has a .592 xwOBA. This includes two home runs in his last three games. For a hitter with an extensive track record, you have to trust that he’ll rediscover his power stroke. That feels like what’s happening here.

Tonight, Tatis goes up against Reynaldo Lopez, who has a 4.51 xERA and a 1.17 HR/9 on the season. Lopez has allowed one home run in each of his last two outings.

With how Tatis has been swinging the bat lately, it feels like a good spot to ride with him here. Bet on him to hit No. 8 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.

Wilyer Abreu Home Run Odds

Wilyer Abreu is slashing .267/.339/.461 with 15 home runs in 421 plate appearances. His barrel rate is up to 13.0%, so he’s been hitting the ball hard. He’s also been among the hottest hitters in baseball.

Abreu has four homers in his last four games, including two against the Rays in back-to-back games on July 17th and 18th. In the last seven days, Abreu has a .563 xwOBA.

I’ll ride with him to keep the good times rolling against Kyle Bradish, who has a 1.01 HR/9 and an 8.1% barrel this season.

Bet on Abreu to hit No. 16 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.

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