MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Tuesday, July 28, 2026

We lost on Curtis Mead and Michael Busch to hit home runs on the Monday slate. Brady House was out of the lineup, so that bet was void. Let’s try to bounce back on Tuesday.

Today, we’re going with Griffin Conine, Brandon Lowe, and Ryan Jeffers. I like the spots for each of these hitters.

Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 68-265 (+0.58 units) 

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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, July 28

Griffin Conine Home Run Odds

Griffin Conine has been an underrated source of power for the Marlins this season, slashing .266/.355/.532 with eight home runs in 124 plate appearances. This includes excellent batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 15.3% barrel rate.

Conine homered last night against the Phillies. With how home runs often come in bunches, we’re going to ride with him to homer for the second straight game.

This is an exploitable matchup against Aaron Nola, who has a major issue with the long ball, allowing a 2.08 HR/9 on the season. He’s given up a combined six home runs in his last three starts. What’s also encouraging is that Nola is worse vs. lefties like Conine, giving up a 4.68 xFIP against them (3.02 xFIP vs. righties).

Considering that we’re getting a near +600 price at the time of this article, Conine to homer looks like a strong value. Risk 0.1 units.

Brandon Lowe Home Run Odds

Brandon Lowe has been a massive addition to the Pirates lineup after coming over in a trade with the Rays. The veteran second baseman is slashing .251/.319/.478 with 21 home runs in 436 plate appearances. This includes a rock-solid 12.0% barrel rate.

As a left-handed hitter, Lowe is much better vs. righties, putting up a 134 wRC+ against them (64 wRC+ vs. lefties). He’s getting one tonight in Brandon Pfaadt, who has a 1.11 HR/9 on the season. Pfaadt has been much worse vs. lefties (.366 wOBA) than righties (.270 wOBA), which also bodes well.

Let’s not forget that Lowe is coming into this game on a mini-hot streak, going 6-for-10 in his last two games. I’ll take a chance that he’ll hit his 22nd homer of the year tonight, even at around +350 odds. Risk 0.1 units.

Ryan Jeffers Home Run Odds

Ryan Jeffers has quietly been terrific for the Twins, slashing .293/.395/.535 with nine home runs in 185 plate appearances. This includes a 13.4% barrel rate with a 16.8% strikeout rate, so he’s hitting the ball hard while putting it in play often.

Jeffers has hit safely in 11 of his last 12 games, set for an exploitable matchup vs. Seth Lugo, who has a 5.42 xERA and a 1.11 HR/9 this year. Lugo has much more of an issue with the long ball against righties like Jeffers (1.69 HR/9) compared to lefties (0.84 HR/9).

This is a projected high-scoring game with a 9.5-run total, as we’re getting 87-degree temperatures in Minnesota. Jeffers comes at a near +500 price for tonight’s game, making him a solid value. Risk 0.1 units.

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