MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Wednesday, August 12, 2026

We got shut out in home run props yet again on Tuesday, as Spencer Torkelson, Francisco Lindor, and Tyler O’Neill each failed to go yard. We’re ice cold right now, desperate for a winning night on the Wednesday slate. 

Today, we’re going with Jac Caglianone, Eugenio Suarez, and Wilyer Abreu. Each of these hitters has been crushing the ball lately.

Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 75-299 (-0.43 units)

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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, August 12

Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds

Jac Caglianone is currently slashing .269/.322/.488 with 21 home runs in 435 plate appearances. This includes impressive batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 14.6% barrel rate. 

Since July 29th, Caglianone is slashing .382/.414/.727 with five home runs in 58 plate appearances. During this stretch, he has an elite 13.8% strikeout rate, so he’s been completely locked in at the plate.

In the last seven days, Caglianone has a .492 xwOBA, which ranks 7th in MLB. Simply put, this is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. We’re getting him at longer than +350 odds to homer tonight because it’s a lefty-vs-lefty matchup vs. Erik Lauer. However, Caglianone still has a .194 ISO against lefties. 

With how hot he’s been at the plate, we have to ride with him here. Risk 0.1 units.

Eugenio Suarez Home Run Odds

Eugenio Suarez is currently slashing .206/.286/.416 with 17 home runs in 346 plate appearances. His return to Cincinnati certainly has not gone as planned, especially coming off 49 home runs in 2025. However, there are some encouraging signs at the plate here. 

The veteran slugger is finally starting to heat up. In the last seven days, he has a .480 xwOBA with three home runs in 22 plate appearances. This includes a home run against the White Sox last night.

You have to like the spot against Luis Castillo, who has struggled this season, putting up a 4.84 xERA and a 1.48 HR/9 on the season. With a slugger with a long track record like Suarez, home runs tend to come in bunches. We’ll take a shot that he hits No. 18 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.

Wilyer Abreu Home Run Odds

Wilyer Abreu is currently slashing .254/.331/.463 with 21 home runs in 504 plate appearances. This includes a rock-solid 20.6% strikeout rate and a 12.7% barrel rate. 

In the last seven days, Abreu has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball, putting up a .434 xwOBA with two home runs in 26 plate appearances. While the matchup against Jose Soriano is tough (0.85 HR/9), he hasn’t pitched deep into games lately.

We can use this batter-vs-pitcher matchup as a buying opportunity, as Abreu comes at an appealing price of longer than +450 odds at the time of this article. For one of the hottest hitters in baseball, those are great odds.

With that in mind, we’ll go with Abreu to hit his 22nd homer of the season tonight. Risk 0.1 units.

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Photo Credit: REUTERS