MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Wednesday, August 5, 2026
We got shut out on Tuesday, as Royce Lewis, Griffin Conine, and Isaac Paredes each failed to hit home runs. Let’s try to get back on track with the Wednesday slate.
Today, we’re going with Salvador Perez, Luis Garcia Jr., and Dylan Crews. I like the spot for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 74-281 (+1.06 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, August 5
Salvador Perez Home Run Odds
Salvador Perez has had a great career as one of the best-hitting catchers in MLB, but the 36-year-old has shown severe signs of decline this season, slashing .216/.262/.379 with 16 home runs in 446 plate appearances. His barrel rate has fallen from 14.7% to 10.2%, but at least he’s still on pace for nearly 25 homers.
I like the spot on Perez here because he’s showing encouraging signs at the plate. Perez has hit safely in six of his last seven games, with three multi-hit games during this stretch. We saw him homer as recently as August 1st. Perez has been much better at home this season as well, putting up a .185 ISO (.143 ISO on the road).
The Twins are sending out Dean Kremer, who is making his debut with the team after being acquired at the trade deadline. The 30-year-old right-hander has had major issues with the long ball this season, as highlighted by a 3.00 HR/9. We’ve seen Kremer allow 2+ home runs in three of his seven outings.
We’re getting longer than +450 odds on Perez at the time of this article, so it’s a good spot to take him to hit No. 17 on the season.
Luis Garcia Jr. Home Run Odds
Luis Garcia Jr. had been having a career year for the Nationals, slashing .285/.314/.564 with 24 home runs in 382 plate appearances. His barrel rate is at a career-high 12.5%, which is a sizeable increase from last year’s 9.0% rate. Then, the Nationals traded him to the Yankees at the deadline.
As a left-handed hitter, playing with the short porch in right field for Garcia. We’ve already seen him hit one home run for his new team, going yard in his debut on Monday, August 3rd. I’ll ride with him again in a home start vs. Cardinals’ right-hander Andre Pallante, who has a tougher time vs. lefties (.321 wOBA) than righties (.270 wOBA).
I like that we’re getting longer than +400 odds on Garcia here, making him one of the better values among Yankee hitters for this matchup. We’ll take a shot on him to hit No. 25 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Dylan Crews Home Run Odds
Dylan Crews is currently slashing .222/.301/.378 with nine home runs in 256 plate appearances. While this is an underwhelming slash line, at least he has a 10.4% barrel rate. While Crews has gotten off to a slow start in August, he had his best month in July, putting up an .801 OPS.
With Luis Garcia Jr. dealt to the Yankees and James Wood on the injured list, Crews has been moved to the leadoff spot. This makes him a more appealing target because he’ll have a chance at more plate appearances.
I like the spot against Andrew Painter, as he’s struggled this year, putting up a 5.23 xERA and a 1.90 HR/9 on the season.
We’re getting longer than +500 odds on Crews, so I like this price in this spot. It’s a projected high-scoring game with a 9.5-run total, making it worth a look. Risk 0.1 units.
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