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We had a profitable day on Tuesday, as Francisco Alvarez went yard, making up for a loss on Taylor Ward. Dominic Canzone didn’t play, so that bet was void.
Today, we’re going with Junior Caminero, Matt Olson, and Rafael Devers. Each hitter has an exploitable matchup tonight.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 57-213 (+1.56 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, July 1
Junior Caminero Home Run Odds
Junior Caminero is currently slashing .294/.384/.555 with 23 home runs in 359 plate appearances. He’s improved his walk rate from 6.3% to 13.1% while cutting his strikeout rate from 19.1% to 17.3%. This is while maintaining a 13.2% barrel rate. Simply put, he’s become one of the best hitters in baseball. Making this much contact with this much power is highly impressive.
The Rays’ superstar is on fire right now, homering in five consecutive games, including three times on June 25th. In his last seven games, he has an incredible eight home runs. I have to hop on board this train while Caminero is the hottest hitter in baseball.
Up next is a terrific matchup at Kauffman Stadium, a hitter’s park where forecasts are calling for 88-degree temperatures with the wind blowing out at about 14 MPH. Seth Lugo is on the mound for the Royals. The veteran righty allowed three home runs to the Rays in his last outing, including two to Caminero.
With that in mind, we’ll take Caminero to keep the good times rolling in this favorable spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Matt Olson Home Run Odds
Matt Olson is currently slashing .276/.345/.529 with 20 home runs in 362 plate appearances. The 32-year-old first baseman continues to hit the ball hard, as highlighted by a 13.6% barrel rate. While he hasn’t homered since June 12th, I like the spot for him to end the drought tonight.
For one, we’re getting hitter-friendly weather, with temperatures projected at 91 degrees in Atlanta. Olson gets to go up against Cardinals’ right-hander Michael McGreevy, who has a 5.58 xERA on the season. McGreevy has given up at least one home run in three of his last four starts. He’s also been worse vs. lefties, putting up a 4.40 xFIP and 1.28 HR/9 against them.
Considering this favorable spot, we’ll take a shot on Olson to hit No. 21 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Rafael Devers Home Run Odds
Rafael Devers is currently slashing .242/.304/.459 with 15 home runs in 359 plate appearances. While this line is underwhelming, especially compared to what we’re used to from Devers, he’s starting to find his power stroke. Devers has seven home runs since June 10th. This includes a homer against the Diamondbacks last night.
You have to love the matchup against Zac Gallen tonight, as he has a 6.19 xERA and 1.56 HR/9 on the season. Lefties have crushed Gallen, putting up a .384 wOBA against him (.358 wOBA vs righties). Gallen has given up two homers in two of his last three starts.
Simply put, this is one of the worst pitchers in MLB, so it’s a good idea to fade him here and go with Devers. Risk 0.1 units.
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