MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Wednesday, July 29, 2026

We won on Brandon Lowe yesterday, making it a profitable night, even with Griffin Conine and Ryan Jeffers failing to hit home runs. Let’s start a winning streak with this result.

Today, we’re going with Ceddanne Rafaela, Tyler Stephenson, and Kyle Tucker. I like the spots for each of these hitters.

Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 69-267 (+0.75 units) 

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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, July 29

Ceddanne Rafaela Home Run Odds

Ceddanne Rafaela has shown improvement at the plate this season, slashing .278/.320/.441 with 11 home runs in 418 plate appearances. He’s gone from a 91 wRC+ to a 108 wRC+ this year.

The Red Sox center fielder has been heating up as well, homering three times in his last seven games. Rafaela has crushed lefties, putting up a .243 ISO against them (.133 ISO vs. righties). That’s great news for tonight’s matchup.

The Athletics are sending out lefty Jacob Lopez, who has a 1.53 HR/9 on the season. He’s been much worse vs. righties like Rafaela (.383 wOBA) compared to lefties (.305 wOBA).

Then we have to consider that this game is at one of the most homer-friendly environments in baseball in Sutter Health Park. It’s a projected high-scoring affair with a 9.5-run total.

Despite that, we can get Rafaela to go yard at an appealing price of around +500 odds at the time of this article. Sign me up. Risk 0.1 units.

Tyler Stephenson Home Run Odds

Tyler Stephenson is currently slashing .248/.323/.398 with eight home runs in 285 plate appearances. This includes a respectable 11.4% barrel rate. The veteran catcher has three multi-hit games in his last seven, including two home runs on July 19th.

Despite struggling vs. lefties this season, we’ve seen Stephenson have success against them throughout his career, as highlighted by a .172 ISO and 110 wRC+ (.159 ISO and 102 wRC+ vs. righties).

He’ll face one tonight in Joey Cantillo, who is giving up a 1.07 HR/9 this season. Cantillo has allowed a combined nine earned runs in his last two outings, so he’s in poor form right now.

Then you have to consider that this game is at Great American Ball Park, which is one of the most homer-friendly venues in MLB. It’s a projected high-scoring affair with a nine-run total.

You can get Stephenson to go yard at longer than +500 odds in this matchup.

Kyle Tucker Home Run Odds

Kyle Tucker has been a major disappointment in his first season with the Dodgers, slashing .240/.336/.376 with nine home runs in 417 plate appearances. His barrel rate has plummeted from 10.8% to 6.7%.

However, this is a hitter with a long track record, so we have to trust that he’ll get back on track sooner rather than later. We’re starting to see signs of this, as Tucker has two home runs in his last four games.

Emerson Hancock is on the mound for the Mariners. He’s been worse vs. lefties like Tucker (1.35 HR/9) than righties (0.79 HR/9), which bodes well.

We’re also getting a nice price on Tucker at nearly +600 odds at the time of this article. Risk 0.1 units.

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