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We made a small profit on Tuesday, as Pete Crow-Armstrong stayed hot, homering yet again. This made up for losses on Josh Naylor and Shea Langeliers. Let’s try to build on this for the Wednesday slate.
Today, we’re going with Yordan Alvarez, Eugenio Suarez, and Corbin Carroll. I like the spots and the value on each of these hitters.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 51-200 (+0.5 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, June 24
Yordan Alvarez Home Run Odds
Yordan Alvarez is having a monster year, currently slashing .325/.436/.640 with 25 home runs in 349 plate appearances. The fact that he’s putting up an 18.9% barrel rate while maintaining a 16.6% strikeout rate is truly insane. Simply put, Yordan has been the best hitter in baseball this season.
I like the matchup against Trey Yesavage, who is having some issues with the long ball lately. In his last three starts, Yesavage has given up five home runs. That’s bad news vs. a slugger like Yordan.
Then you have to consider the price. Yordan is often available at shorter than +300 odds, sometimes +250 or so, but tonight we get him longer than that price. The value looks good on Yordan to hit No. 26 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Eugenio Suarez Home Run Odds
Eugenio Suarez has been disappointing in his return to the Reds, slashing .201/.260/.353 with seven home runs in 200 plate appearances. However, this is a veteran hitter who slugged 48 homers last year, so the track record is there to expect a power binge sooner rather than later. We recently saw Suarez hit two homers against the Mets on June 15th (side note: I took him that game).
I like the spot at home in the bandbox that is Great American Ball Park, which is a home run haven, aka one of the most homer-friendly environments in baseball. It’s a projected high-scoring game, as highlighted by the 9.5-run total.
Suarez will be going up against Brewers’ lefty Shane Drohan, who is giving up a 1.27 HR/9 to righties (zero homers allowed to lefties). We’re getting longer than +400 odds on Suarez, making him worth a look in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Corbin Carroll Home Run Odds
Corbin Carroll is having a terrific season for the Diamondbacks, slashing .280/.367/.543 with 13 home runs in 324 plate appearances. He’s trimmed his strikeout rate from 23.8% to 21.0% while maintaining a 12.5% barrel rate.
What’s interesting about Carroll this year is that he’s crushed lefties. As a left-handed hitter, it’s always shocking to see these reverse splits, which include a 1.123 OPS vs. southpaws this year.
He faces lefty Matthew Liberatore tonight, and guess what? Liberatore has reverse splits as well. Lefties have a .401 wOBA against him. Liberatore has allowed a 3.24 HR/9 to left-handed hitters.
Due to the lefty-vs-lefty matchup, we can get Carroll at longer than +500 odds, making him look like a terrific value in this favorable matchup. Risk 0.1 units.
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