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We got shut out on Tuesday home run props, as Vinnie Pasquantino, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Byron Buxton each failed to go yard. Today, we’re going with Jarren Duran, Jake Bauers, and Shohei Ohtani. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 80-336 (-1.39 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, August 26
Vinnie Pasquantino Home Run Odds
After an offseason filled with trade rumors, Jarren Duran has followed that up with a disappointing season. The 29-year-old outfielder is currently slashing .209/.267/.365 with 17 home runs in 516 plate appearances. His strikeout rate has increased significantly, going from 24.3% to 28.1%.
However, we saw Duran homer against the Marlins on Tuesday night. Before that, he had a two-hit game, including one double. Perhaps this is the case of a veteran hitter who is finally finding his groove towards the end of the season.
You have to like the matchup against Ryan Gusto, who has a 1.25 HR/9 and 8.6% barrel rate this season. With that in mind, let’s ride with Duran to hit a homer here. Risk 0.1 units.
Jake Bauers Home Run Odds
Jake Bauers has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, going from a useful bench bat into a valuable everyday player. The 30-year-old is currently slashing .273/.382/.503 with 23 home runs in 474 plate appearances. This includes impressive batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 13.9% barrel rate.
Bauers has been terrific in August, slashing .288/.422/.515 with four home runs. We’ll take him to go yard again, this time against Mets’ right-hander Robert Stock. This is a pitcher who has struggled with hard contact so far, giving up a 10.4% barrel rate.
With how hard Bauers has hit the ball this year, this is the perfect matchup to exploit as we search for home run props. Let’s take Bauers to hit No. 24 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Shohei Ohtani Home Run Odds
We’ll finish it off with the best player in baseball, targeting Shohei Ohtani. The future Hall-of-Famer is slashing .288/.389/.545 with 30 home runs in 554 plate appearances. The barrel rate has gone down from 23.4% to 16.3%, but those are still rock-solid batted ball metrics.
Ohtani has been excellent in August, slashing .272/.366/.543 with six home runs in 93 plate appearances. He’s coming into this matchup against AJ Smith-Shawver in top form. The Braves’ right-hander has a 5.74 xERA on the season, so this is an exploitable spot.
You have to like that we’re getting Ohtani at longer than +200 odds, especially considering the matchup. Risk 0.1 units.
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