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We hit on Rafael Devers on Friday, giving us our third profitable night in the last four. It’s a mini-hot streak that we welcome with open arms after what’s been a horrendous cold streak. Let’s build on this with the Saturday slate.
Today, we’re going with George Springer, William Contreras, and Pete Alonso. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 78-325 (-1.11 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, August 22
George Springer Home Run Odds
George Springer came into Friday’s action with a .235/.315/.388 slash with 12 home runs in 409 plate appearances. His barrel rate has plummeted from 15.8% to 6.6%, but at least he’s keeping his strikeouts in check at 18.6%.
It’s also worth noting that Springer has been a lot better in the second half. Since the All-Star Break, he has a .279/.345/.423 slash with three home runs in 116 plate appearances.
On top of that, he’s had success against today’s starter, Ryan Weathers. In nine plate appearances, Springer has two home runs and a .786 expected slugging percentage.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Springer to hit No. 13 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
William Contreras Home Run Odds
William Contreras came into Friday slashing .257/.330/.381 with 12 home runs in 509 plate appearances. It’s surprising to see such a power outage from a hitter who once had a .228 ISO, back in 2022.
While Contreras has really struggled in the second half, slashing .178/.288/.327 with three home runs in 125 plate appearances, I like the spot for him to get on track against Martin Perez.
In 11 plate appearances vs. the veteran left-hander, Contreras has one home run with a .782 expected slugging percentage. On top of that, he has a .187 career ISO vs. lefties (.160 ISO vs. righties).
Considering these favorable circumstances, this feels like the right spot to ride with Contreras. Risk 0.1 units.
Pete Alonso Home Run Odds
Pete Alonso came into Friday’s game with a .269/.360/.498 slash with 29 home runs in 555 plate appearances. This includes an impressive 14.0% barrel rate.
What’s most encouraging about Alonso is how hot he’s been at the plate. After homering on Friday, he now has seven homers in his last 12 games. That’s exactly what you want to see when targeting a home run prop, since homers often come in bunches.
Alonso gets to face left-hander Shane McClanahan in this game, which is good news for him because the Rays’ southpaw has struggled vs. this slugger. In 10 career plate appearances vs. McClanahan, Alonso has one home run with a .786 expected slugging percentage. Roll with the Polar Bear here. Risk 0.1 units.
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