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The New England Patriots exceeded all expectations in 2025. A young team with a second-year quarterback, the Patriots had hopes of making some noise in 2025. Back-to-back 4-13 seasons left the Patriots with a sour taste in their mouth, but with Mike Vrabel leading the team in his first season as head coach, the Patriots were expected to have an edge about them—something they lacked in 2024 under Jerod Mayo. If anyone knew the Patriot Way, it was former Super Bowl-winning linebacker Vrabel. He’d have to be the guy to inspire some courage and fight in this young team. And, boy, did he succeed.
The Patriots finished with a 14-3 record, the best in the AFC, before defeating the Houston Texans and Denver Broncos to progress to their first Super Bowl appearance since 2018. Unfortunately for the Patriots, they were comfortably bested by the Seattle Seahawks and head into the 2026 NFL season looking to avoid a Super Bowl hangover that’s plagued the losing teams in recent seasons.
The conversation around the Patriots in the lead-up to, and the aftermath of, the Super Bowl was that their record flattered them. The Patriots’ strength of schedule was one of the easiest in the NFL in 2026, and that meant not facing much stiff competition until the postseason. They were considered not-so-worthy Super Bowl competitors, but that’s discounting their run of tough defenses—the Broncos and Texans, two of the top ten defenses in EPA per play, per Sümer Sports—en route to the Super Bowl.
The Patriots will be aiming to make it back to the Super Bowl in 2026, and on paper, they’re a superior team to the one that won the AFC last season. They’ve added an elite wide receiver in A.J. Brown, as well as an excellent complementary option in Romeo Doubs, and improved the offensive line—a sore point in the 2025 season—by adding Alijah Vera-Tucker and first-round pick Caleb Lomu. On top of that, the Patriots added Dre’Mont Jones to improve the defensive line.
The elevation of quarterback Drake Maye in his second season in the NFL was paramount to the Patriots’ success. Maye finished second in MVP voting, completing a league-high 72.0% of his pass attempts for 4394 yards, 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions, and Maye finished the season first in total EPA. In just two seasons, Maye has elevated himself to near-elite territory, and his third season in the NFL will be pivotal to securing that status. Even off the back of a disappointing Super Bowl loss, the Patriots are going to be a team looking to bounce straight back into playoff contention. Their 2025 season might have been filled with some good fortune, but they took the most of the chances afforded to them. Can an improved team do the same in 2026, or maybe go one better?
2026 New England Patriots Super Bowl Odds
Despite an offseason where the Patriots have been faded due to their 2025 regular season run, it’s clear that Vegas still believes in their ability as a team. The Patriots head into the 2026 NFL season with +1600 Super Bowl odds—better than the Chargers, Texans, 49ers, Broncos, and Lions. Odds are just odds, but that faith in the Patriots is still based on the quality of their team and what they could achieve this season. And there’s no reason they can’t make it back to the Super Bowl. The AFC might have gotten stronger this offseason, but the Patriots haven’t fallen away. Brown, if fully healthy and engaged, could be a pivotal difference-maker on the boundary, giving Maye the true number one target he lacked in 2026. And if the defense can remain a top-half unit—they finished 11th in EPA—then the sky could be the limit once more in New England.
Bet: Yes
2026 New England Patriots AFC Championship Odds
The Patriots run to the AFC Championship in 2025 wasn’t easy. A first-round bye, thanks to the best record in the conference, paved the way, but the Patriots still had to beat, arguably, two of the top five defenses in the league in the Texans and Broncos. It wasn’t easy, and the Patriots were handed an easier ride when the Broncos lost Bo Nix before the Conference Championship Game, but they found a way to survive. A first-round bye in 2026 is no guarantee.
The Ravens and Chiefs will be back to contendership, the Broncos and Texans will be even more willing to prove their candidacy, while the Bills, Bengals, and Chargers all have legitimate reasons to believe in themselves. The AFC is no joke. But the Patriots are still a team to be reckoned with. Translating their upgrades on paper onto the field won’t be easy, but this team still has aspirations of winning a Super Bowl during Drake Maye’s rookie contract. They’ve got the third-best odds to win the AFC at +760. It’s a bet worth taking if you believe they’ll be better in 2026.
Bet: Yes
2026 New England Patriots AFC East Odds
After watching the Buffalo Bills dominate the AFC East—a task historically reserved for the Patriots—since 2020, New England stepped back into the limelight in 2025, winning their first AFC East crown since 2019. They were clinical in division matchups, with a combined record of 5-1 against the Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets, and that was the difference. The Bills remain the favorites to win the division, with the Patriots’ odds sitting at +125—second in the division. Despite those odds, there’s a real argument to be made that the Patriots are the strongest team in the division.
The Bills’ defense will have question marks in their first season without Sean McDermott, and that coaching change could come with growing pains. The Patriots have continuity on their side, and potentially the best offense and defense in the division. The Bills are favorites thanks to Josh Allen, but the Patriots could feasibly win the division for the second year in a row.
Bet: Yes
2026 New England Patriots Win Total Odds
The Patriots won 14 games in 2025 after winning just eight games combined in the previous two seasons. It was the first time since 2016 that the Patriots had won 14 games. Coming close to that win total in 2026 would be a difficult proposition. The Patriots had one of the league’s easiest schedules last season, but face a much tougher test this season—taking on the NFL’s sixth-toughest schedule.
That doesn’t mean this talented team can’t go the distance, but anything close to their 2025 win total would be an unmitigated success. However, the team heading into this season is arguably far more talented than the one that won 14 games last season—will they get the same breaks, though? That’s more than unlikely. However, the Patriots win total is set at 9.5 wins in 2026, which feels more than attainable. They’re an all-around strong unit—one of the best in the league—and have the ability to win 11 games or more this season, but 9.5 at -140 is too expensive.
Bet: No
2026 New England Patriots To Make The Playoffs Odds
The goal for Maye and the Patriots in 2026 is to make the playoffs again. The team hasn’t made the postseason in consecutive years since Tom Brady’s final season in New England, and another trip to the playoffs in 2026 would be an indicator of potential long-term success for the team. The path won’t be easy; the AFC is still littered with some of the league’s top quarterbacks, from Patrick Mahomes to Lamar Jackson, and those quarterbacks can carry their teams, but the Patriots have the fifth-best odds to make the playoffs in 2026 at -225. They’re a team built to go the distance and have more than enough in the tank to make the postseason once again, even if the picture around them continues to change and evolve. The AFC is better, but so are the Patriots. They’ll be playing January football once again but not worth the wager here.
Bet: No
2026 New England Patriots MVP Award Odds & Contenders
- Drake Maye
The Patriots have some excellent individual talent on the roster. A.J. Brown can still be one of the top five receivers in the league, Christian Gonzalez has a case to be the league’s top cornerback, and there’s some really promising young talent on the roster, too. However, if anyone on the team is an MVP contender, it’s obviously Drake Maye. The former North Carolina quarterback finished second in MVP voting in 2025 after a successful second season in the league, and there’s every reason to believe he’ll challenge again after losing to Matt Stafford.
Maye has all of the traits—physical and intangible—to be the best quarterback in the NFL, and it wouldn’t be hyperbole to suggest that the infrastructure around him has significantly improved heading into this season. The receiving core is better with Brown and Doubs, and the offensive line—which was a weak point in 2025—has improved with the additions of Vera-Tucker and Lomu. That infrastructure could be the difference for Maye in his pursuit of individual accolades, even if getting over the hump as a team in 2026 remains the goal.
Bet: Drake Maye
2026 New England Patriots Schedule
- Week 1 – at Seattle, 8:20 p.m. – NBC
- Week 2 – vs. Pittsburgh, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 3 – at Jacksonville, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 4 – at Buffalo, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 5 – vs. Las Vegas, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 6 – vs. NY Jets, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 7 – at Chicago, 8:15 p.m. (TNF) – APVO
- Week 8 – at Miami, 4:25 p.m. – CBS
- Week 9 – vs. Green Bay – 4:25 p.m. – FOX
- Week 10 – at Detroit (Munich) – 9:30 a.m. – FOX
- Week 11 – BYE
- Week 12 – at LA Chargers, 8:20 p.m. (SNF) – NBC
- Week 13 – vs. Buffalo, 4:25 p.m. – CBS
- Week 14 – vs. Minnesota, 8:15 p.m. (TNF) – APVO
- Week 15 – at Kansas City, 8:15 p.m. (MNF) – ESPN
- Week 16 – at NY Jets, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 17 – vs. Denver, TBD
- Week 18 – vs. Miami, TBD
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