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Best Bet: U44.5 (-105) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: New Mexico State 23, Sam Houston State 20
The Pick: New Mexico State 23, Sam Houston State 20
We’ll take the Under based on head-to-head data along with both team’s betting stats for the 2026 season thus far.
Game Betting Analysis
The data screams Under, so we’ll land there. The Under has hit in all three meetings between both schools, the losing team scoring 13 points or less in all three meetings. Sam Houston State typically goes Under at home as well, hitting the Under in six straight conference home games. Also, both Sam Houston State and New Mexico State enter the game with a 2-4 O/U record this season. Sam Houston State has actually failed to score over 14 points in three straight games. If looking elsewhere, perhaps New Mexico State is the move covering the spread in nine go 10 games when facing a school from Texas as the favorite. Sam Houston State has also lost six straight games outright in the month of October.
New Mexico State-Sam Houston State Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: James Jones’ Workload vs. Sam Houston’s 129th-Ranked Run Defense
New Mexico State limps into Huntsville on the wrong end of a 22-3 beatdown at FIU, one that exposed just how unsettled this offense has become under center — Adam Damante went 9-of-22 for 104 yards and an interception before Trey Hedden relieved him in the fourth and promptly added his own pick plus a lost fumble, leaving the Aggies 11-of-30 passing for just 123 yards on the night. But buried in that mess was James Jones still doing his job: 15 carries for 89 yards, including 69 in the first half alone, after a 157-yard, one-touchdown outburst the week before against Western Kentucky. Jones has now topped 75-plus rushing yards in three of his last four outings even as the passing attack around him has cratered, and he gets a defense tailor-made for a bounce-back — Sam Houston ranks 129th nationally in FBS (10th in Conference USA) in rush defense at 200.3 yards allowed per game, the clear soft spot on an otherwise respectable Bearkats defensive unit that held opponents to just 125.5 passing yards per game (5th in FBS). With the Aggies’ quarterback carousel still unresolved heading into kickoff, leaning on Jones to control the clock and keep this one on the ground is both the obvious plan and the one the numbers say should work.
Sam Houston, meanwhile, is mired in a 1-5 start that’s now bled into a 0-2 Conference USA mark after a 16-3 home loss to Western Kentucky in which the Bearkats managed just 177 total yards on 57 plays, converted a putrid 2-of-13 on third down, and never once reached the red zone. Landyn Locke’s passing game has shown flashes — he’s thrown for 1,418 yards on the year — but the ground game has been nearly nonexistent, averaging under 100 rushing yards per game as a team even before Saturday’s 65-yard output on 27 carries, and nine penalties for 100 yards against the Hilltoppers only compounded the problem. The Bearkats’ defense has at least kept them within shouting distance, racking up six tackles for loss, two sacks, seven pass breakups and nine quarterback hurries against WKU, so this isn’t a unit that simply rolls over. If New Mexico State’s quarterback situation stays shaky enough that the offense leans even harder on Jones, and Sam Houston’s own third-down and red-zone issues persist, the Aggies have a clean path to control the clock and cover as 2.5-point road favorites — but if that Bearkats front seven gets enough stops to flip field position and force Damante or Hedden into more mistakes, a desperate home underdog still searching for its first CUSA win has a real chance to spring the upset outright.
Game Information
- Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2, ESPN+
- Venue: Bowers Stadium – 39.3 ppg; 1-2 O/U
- Conference: CUSA
Best Bets for College Football Week 8
- Under 44.5 (-105)
Key Players
New Mexico State
- RB, James Jones — Last Game: 15 carries, 89 yards
- S, Nick Session — Last Game: 13 tackles
Sam Houston State
- QB, Landyn Locke — Last Game: 13/30, 112 yards, INT
- WR, Chris Reed — Last Game: 3 catches, 51 yards
Photo Credit: REUTERS
