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Ladies and gentlemen — we made it. The NBA season is here. We have three games today, and the primetime 7:00 PM ET slot belongs to the defending champion Knicks hosting the rebuilt 76ers. If you’re looking to get a little action on the game tonight, we have you covered with a first basket pick. This is something we’ll be doing daily throughout the NBA season. Our pick for today is Jaylen Brown at odds.
He’s built to get the first shot
Brown averaged 28.7 points per game last season in Boston, so he arrives in Philly as a go-to scorer. Nick Nurse is expected to lean on two-man actions, including a weak-side pairing of Brown and LeBron James. Last year’s data on both of these players is clear: LeBron remains deferential early in games, while Brown is aggressive. We expect this trend to continue tonight.
The numbers back it up
Odds of imply only about 12.5%. Last year, he attempted the first shot in 23.9% of games despite being on a team that won the opening tip less than 50% of the time.
Do the quick math on that. Even if Brown makes only half of his shots, taking the opening shot in nearly a quarter of games gives him roughly a 12% chance from the first possession alone. That’s before counting the times someone misses early and he scores on the next trip down. This market settles on the first made field goal, so free throws don’t count, which makes his shooting from the floor the number to watch.
The shooting showed up in the preseason, too. In games against the Knicks, Nets and Celtics, Brown scored 22, 18 and 20 points on 21-of-36 shooting (58%).
His preseason opener was a preview of tonight. Against these same Knicks on Oct. 5, he scored 13 first-quarter points on 5-of-8 shooting and had 22 by halftime as the focal point of the offense. LeBron, Embiid and Maxey all sat that night, but the volume held up when the stars returned: with Embiid and Maxey in the lineup against Boston on Oct. 16, Brown still got up 14 shots in 31 minutes.
The ring night factor
Ring nights are emotional, and opening possessions can get sloppy. The 76ers, and Brown specifically, have something to prove. Expect this team to be dialed in. Historically, LeBron likes to get his teammates going early. This means Embiid and JB should be in prime position to score the first basket. Right now, you can get more bang for your buck by betting on JB.
For more on how the market works, plus jump ball and opening-play strategy, see our NBA first basket guide.
