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Our ATS Parlay: Saints (+7) + Vikings (-1.5) + Eagles (-5.5) (+581)
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The Parlay: 3-Leg Breakdown
Leg 1: Saints +7 (-115)
Even though I do believe in the New Orleans Saints upside, this is more of a fade of the Detroit Lions. With Cade Mays out, the middle of their offensive line will struggle to give Jared Goff the protection he needs to trim down on his Turnover Worthy Plays. While he is an efficient thrower in his own right, the drop off in production when pressured is staggering, dropping down to 28th in EPA per play.
On the other side of the ball, there are major red flags looming over the Lions secondary with their star safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph out with injuries. When their front seven is unable to collapse the pocket, Tyler Shough will have more time to let his plays develop, opening up wider passing lanes at multiple levels of the field to help connect with his pass catchers at a high rate.
Leg 2: Vikings -1.5 (-110)
While it remains to be seen how Kyler Murray will look in his first stint with Minnesota, it’s hard to play worse than JJ McCarthy, last year’s starter who ranked near dead last in QB EPA per play, CPOE, and in Bad Throw Percentage. Murray is also just as effective with his legs, making the Vikings more versatile to the demise of opposing linebackers who already have their hands full covering Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings.
In a divisional matchup against the Green Bay Packers, Murray will be able to get off to a hot start by exploiting a defense who is projected to rank below league average in Def DVOA and in Success Rate. Especially with Micah Parsons sitting out, lessening the amount of pressure Murray has to combat against while integrating with his new weapons.
Leg 3: Eagles -5.5 (-110)
With the Washington Commanders fielding one of the worst offensive lines in the league, the Philadelphia Eagles vaunted front seven will be able to live in the backfield while generating pressure at a high rate. Their ability to collapse the pocket with just their front four will also allow the Eagles to spy their outside linebackers, making it easier to neutralize Daniels legs when he tries to scramble out of the backfield.
Worse yet for the Commanders, their struggles on defense are poised to persist after an underwhelming offseason, bringing back a group who ranked in the bottom ten in Def DVOA and in EPA. Washington’s lack of production on defense will allow the Eagles to get into the red zone at a consistent rate, setting a scoring pace too fast for them to keep up with.
NFL Week 1 ATS Parlay Odds & Payout
| Leg | Matchup | Individual Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saints +7 vs. Lions | -115 |
| 2 | Vikings -1.5 vs. Packers | -110 |
| 3 | Eagles -5.5 vs. Commanders | -110 |
Combined Odds: +581 — a $100 bet on this parlay pays $681 total ($581 profit).
Why This ATS Parlay Hits
Often overlooked, the protection a quarterback receives from his offensive line plays a major role in their season long success. By fading the Lions, Packers, and Commanders, we are pairing a trio of offensive lines who will be unable to hold their own in the trenches, keeping their offense out of rhythm which will lead to a high volume of Hard Stops.
After being held to an early out, the previously mentioned trio will struggle to get the ball back in quick order with all three defenses projected to hover in the bottom half of the board in Def Success Rate. By allowing their opponents to stay ahead of the sticks, the clock will continue to bleed, chipping away at their total number of possessions on offense.
If the Saints cross through the key number of +7 before you are able to place this parlay, target their alt of +7.5, giving you extra security at the expense of your total payout. The difference between +6.5 and +7.5 can make or break your parlay, making it vital you bet them no lower than +7.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
