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Our Moneyline Parlay: Texans ML + Steelers ML + Jets ML (+487)
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The Parlay: 3-Leg Breakdown
Leg 1: Texans ML (+103)
After re-tooling their offensive line, positive regression looms large over the Houston Texans offense, a group who ranked 22nd overall in Off EPA and 28th in Success Rate last season. With CJ Stroud getting to operate in a clean pocket, the amount of Havoc in his throws will drastically decline, polishing up his poor mark in Bad Throw Percentage.
Complementing their revamped offense is a dominant defense, bringing back a core who propelled them to a top-2 finish in Def DVOA. With their secondary capable of holding their own in coverage, the Texans will be able to crash their linebackers to the trenches, plugging Josh Allen’s running lanes before he is able to scramble away from their pressure. When held to early outs, the Texans will find themselves already near scoring position, making it easier for them to pull away on the scoreboard.
Leg 2: Steelers ML (-235)
After Tua Tagovailoa won the job over Michael Penix Jr, Atlanta’s newly acquired quarterback suffered an injury in practice, now potentially needing to turn towards Cooper Rush in their Week 1 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. While Penix and Tagovailoa are hardly worth putting any stock into, Rush is still a sizable drop off in production when compared to the duo, handicapping the Falcons high powered offense.
Whether Tua is able to play or not, either quarterback is in for a long night, battling it out against a defense who ranks above league average in Def Success Rate. By holding the Falcons comfortably behind the sticks on early downs, their probability of converting declines, stalling out their offense before reaching the red zone. Even if Joey Porter Jr. is unable to suit up, the Steelers front seven will be able to mask their secondary by consistently collapsing the pocket, forcing Tua or Rush to get the ball out of their hands shortly after the snap.
Leg 3: Jets ML (+103)
After finishing last season ranked 30th in Off DVOA, the New York Jets were aggressive in their efforts of re-tooling their offense, bringing in Adonai Mitchell to help pull defensive attention away from Garrett Wilson. The Jets also used two of their three first round picks on Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr, a pair of pass catchers to help stretch the field.
Their other pick was used on David Bailey, a productive pass rusher who will help their front seven generate pressure at a higher rate. While their secondary still underwhelms on paper, Cam Ward is hardly a threat to expose them, ranking 30th or worse in EPA per play, CPOE, Bad Throw Percentage, and in Air Yards/Reception. Barring a sudden turnaround, expect Ward to continue to hold the Tennessee Titans back, giving the Jets the edge they need to win outright.
NFL Week 1 Moneyline Parlay Odds & Payout
| Leg | Matchup | Individual Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texans ML vs. Bills | +103 |
| 2 | Steelers ML vs. Falcons | -235 |
| 3 | Jets ML vs. Titans | +103 |
Combined Odds: +487
Payout Example: A $100 bet on this parlay pays out $587 total ($487 profit).
Why This Moneyline Parlay Hits
Fading quarterbacks in less than ideal situations is the theme of this three leg parlay. While I’m certainly not comparing Allen to Tua and Ward, the Bills star quarterback draws the short end of the stick in Week 1, facing off against a defense who is more than capable of giving him fits. Especially with the Texans front seven allowed to blitz at a heavy rate, forcing Allen to either make an ill-advised throw or try to reach the outside for minimal success.
Ward and Tua on the other hand are direct fades, a pair of quarterbacks who have struggled with their efficiency under center, making it difficult for their offense to keep their drives alive. Any stalled out drive will feed into their opponents total number of possessions, potentially leading to an early deficit with no hope of clawing their way back.
The Bills, Falcons, and Titans also all possess glaring holes on defense, residing in the bottom ten in Def Rush EPA. By allowing their opponents to methodically move the ball on the ground, they will struggle to create Havoc, reducing the amount of variance in favor of their opponent.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
