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Our ATS Parlay: Jets +3.5 + Seahawks -4 + Chiefs -6.5 (+629 on FanDuel)
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The Parlay: 3-Leg Breakdown
Leg 1: Jets +3.5 (-106)
After re-tooling their roster in the offseason, the New York Jets were able to round back into competitive form, routing the Tennessee Titans 23-10. Their resurgence on offense played a major role in their hot start to the year, climbing into the top-10 in Off DVOA and in EPA. Even though Geno Smith was unable to find the back of the end zone, he still was able to stretch the field, throwing for 215 yards while completing 79% of his passes.
Heading into Week 2, Smith will be able to build on his momentum against the Green Bay Packers by taking advantage of a defense who resides in the bottom half of the board in Def EPA and in Success Rate. Especially with Micah Parsons on the sideline, giving Smith a clean pocket to operate it which will help reduce the amount of havoc in his throws, leading to a decline in his total number of Turnover Worthy Plays.
Leg 2: Seahawks -4 (-112)
While everyone expected Arizona to already have their sights set on next year’s draft, the Cardinals shocked the nation, upsetting the Los Angeles Chargers as a +9.5 underdog. A stunning result when factoring in their overhaul on offense, yet their performance in Week 1 backed up their results, ranking well above league average in Off DVOA and in EPA.
Unfortunately for the Cardinals, negative regression looms large in their matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, battling it out against a defense who ranks fifth in Def DVOA while leading the league in Def Rush Success Rate. With Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier struggling to pull defensive attention to the middle, the Seahawks will be able to stretch out their linebackers and smother Jacoby Brissett’s passing lanes, making it difficult to stay ahead of the sticks
Leg 3: Chiefs -6.5 (-112)
After months of anticipation, Patrick Mahomes made his return to the field in style, leading the Kansas City Chiefs to a dominant 31-10 victory over the Denver Broncos. Even more stunning, Mahomes actually underwhelmed in his first game back from injury, exiting Week 1 ranked near the bottom of the board in CPOE, Bad Throw Percentage, and in Air Yards/Reception.
In a favorable matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, Mahomes will have a great opportunity to shake off the rust by picking apart a secondary who struggles in coverage per their bottom twelve mark in Dropback Success Rate. With Mahomes giving their offense the versatility they need to be a well rounded unit, the Colts will be unable to get them off the field before they get into scoring position and find themselves quickly behind on the scoreboard.
NFL Week 2 ATS Parlay Odds & Payout
| Leg | Matchup | Individual Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Packers vs. Jets +3.5 | -106 |
| 2 | Seahawks -4 vs. Cardinals | -112 |
| 3 | Colts vs. Chiefs -6.5 | -112 |
Combined Odds: +629 — a $100 bet on this parlay pays $729 total ($629 profit).
Why This ATS Parlay Hits
Not only will the Jets be able to sustain their high level of play on offense, their defense will be able to give them the production they need to reduce the amount of variance in their contest by relentlessly attacking an offensive line who ranks near dead last in Pass Block Grade. By forcing Jordan Love to throw into tight windows, the Jets will be able to stall out their offense and stay within the number.
Speaking of offensive lines, the Cardinals front five will have their hands full against the Seahawks while trying to hold off a front seven who generates pressure at one of the highest rates in the league. When forced to fight off contact in the backfield, the Cardinals committee of running backs will struggle to reach the second level of the defense, leaving their offense comfortably behind the line to gain which will lead to early outs.
Like the Cardinals, the Colts will also struggle to keep their drives alive while battling it out against the Chiefs who rank first in Def EPA. Especially with Daniel Jones lacking the mobility that is needed to scramble away from their pressure while dealing with an injury, forcing him to throw under duress for the full duration of the contest.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
