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Our Moneyline Parlay: Bears ML + Falcons ML + Texans ML (+518)
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The Parlay: 3-Leg Breakdown
Leg 1: Bears ML (-198)
In a favorable matchup against Carolina, the Chicago Bears were able to hit the ground running, thwarting the Panthers 59-37. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai consistently gashed their front seven, running for a total of 224 yards while averaging over 6.5 yards per carry. Their performance on offense was impressive, exiting the week ranked in the top-5 in EPA and in Success Rate while leading the league in DVOA.
Heading into their Week 2 matchup against Minnesota, expect Caleb Williams to keep them competitive by using his scrambling ability to negate the Vikings pressure. When blitzed, Williams is efficient, ranking near the top of the board in Pressure to Sack Ratio. With extra bodies crashing down in the trenches, the Vikings will be vulnerable across the middle, giving the Bears pass catchers extra space to create a wider passing lane for Williams to throw to
Leg 2: Falcons ML (+136)
Even though it resulted in a loss, the Atlanta Falcons still exceeded expectations by taking the Pittsburgh Steelers the distance. Their stunning turnaround on defense helped keep them competitive, ranking third overall in Def EPA. A valiant effort, especially when factoring in the minimal support they received from Cooper Rush, masking an offense who ranked 32nd in Dropback Success Rate.
With the Falcons defense playing at a high level, negative regression looms large over Bryce Young who has struggled when under pressure throughout his career, ranking near dead last in QB EPA per play, CPOE, Bad Throw Percentage, and in Air Yards/Reception. When held to an early out, the Falcons will be able to give their own offense extra possessions to help pull away on the scoreboard, increasing their chances of securing the upset
Leg 3: Texans ML (-135)
Speaking of regression, the Bengals drew the short end of the stick in Week 2, battling it out against the Texans who field one of the best defensive lines in the league. While Josh Allen was able to use his legs to counter their pressure, Joe Burrow is not nearly as lethal with his legs, forcing him to sit in a collapsing pocket while trying to connect with his pass catchers for minimal success.
On the other side of the ball, David Montgomery will be able to build on his momentum by taking advantage of a front seven who struggles to stop the run per their below league average marks in Def Rush EPA, Success Rate, and in Stuff Rate. By giving up explosive plays on the ground, the Texans will be able to set themselves up with favorable distances to gain on later downs, making it easier to sustain their drives down the field
NFL Week 2 Moneyline Parlay Odds & Payout
| Leg | Matchup | Individual Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikings vs. Bears ML | -198 |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Falcons ML | +136 |
| 3 | Bengals vs. Texans ML | -135 |
Combined Odds: +518 — a $100 bet on this parlay pays $618 total ($518 profit).
Why This Moneyline Parlay Hits
There are clear advantages for every team we are backing this week, starting with Caleb Williams who is a matchup nightmare for the Vikings. If Brian Flores calls the blitz, Williams is able to pick apart their gaps in coverage while throwing on the run. If the Vikings anchor their linebackers in cover 8, Williams is able to counter them with his legs when a running lane opens up while they are scrambled in coverage.
Bryce Young meanwhile does not possess the dual threat ability that is needed to crack the Falcons defense, leaving the Panthers prone to stalling out in the middle of their drives. When on the other end, Carolina lacks the production on defense that is needed to slow down their opponents, fielding a group who ranks dead last in Def DVOA.
Like the Falcons, the Texans will also be able to use their high level of play on defense to set their own offense up with generous field position, leading to an uptick in their total number of scoring opportunities. Reminder, when placing a wager on a parlay, you are trading security for a bigger payout. Every leg of a parlay needs to cash or else your bet as a whole will be graded as a loss.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
