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Best Bet: U50.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Troy 28, Southern Miss 22
The Pick: Troy 28, Southern Miss 22
We’ll take the Under with conviction in Troy’s seasonal data, which means fading the Trojans’ ATS although that’s fine if you desire that market instead.
Game Betting Analysis
Everything has Troy written all over it, as the Trojans have won five straight meetings along with covering the spread in those five games – also entering as the favorite which has covered in four of five meetings with Southern Miss. Also, the Under seems to be steady with the Trojans, hitting the Under in all four games this season. Troy, in its last five covers against Southern Miss, also covered as a double-digit favorite in three of those meetings – while Southern Miss lost at home to UConn by four touchdowns. They did, however, rebound with a three-point loss to Tulane – while Troy is actually 1-3 ATS this season. We succumb to the Under with reservations regarding Troy’s ATS.
Southern Miss-Troy Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Troy’s Run Game vs. Southern Miss’s Banged-Up Offense
Troy (2-2) hosts Southern Miss (1-3) at Veterans Memorial Stadium on Tuesday night as a 9.5-to-10.5-point favorite, and the line is less about which team is playing well and more about which team is still able to move the ball at all. Southern Miss is down its starting quarterback (Ethan Hampton, out with a broken hand) and two of its top receivers (J. Himes, G. Page), forcing Landry Lyddy into a full-time starting role behind an offense that’s scored 21 points or fewer in three straight games, including losses to Auburn (43-8) and UConn (48-20). Lyddy wasn’t bad in relief against Tulane (243 yards, 3 TDs in the loss), but asking him to carry a short-handed receiving corps on the road against a Troy defense that ranks 37th against the run and 31st on third downs is a tall order, especially with the Golden Eagles already 0-2 away from home this season.
Troy’s own offense isn’t humming either — QB Goose Crowder is completing just 52% of his throws and tossed three picks against Utah State — but Troy doesn’t need Crowder to be great here. Southern Miss’s run defense is the worst matchup on the field for either side, surrendering 235.3 rushing yards per game (137th nationally) at 5.2 yards a carry, and Troy’s run-first attack behind Gavin Griffin (259 yards on 54 carries) is built to lean on exactly that weakness. Expect Troy to control the clock on the ground and let Crowder’s downfield shots to TK Keyes (270 yards, 3 TDs, 22.5 yards per catch) pick on a Southern Miss secondary that’s lost its top two cover options. Troy has also won five straight in this series, all by multiple scores — history and roster health are both pointing the same direction here.
Game Information
- Date: Tuesday, October 6, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2, ESPN+
- Venue: Veterans Memorial Stadium – 48 ppg; 0-2 O/U
- Conference: Sun Belt
Best Bets for College Football Week 6
- Under 50.5 (-110)
Key Players
Southern Miss
- QB, Landry Lyddy — Last Game: 19/29, 243 yards, 3 TD
- DB, Michael Robinson III — Last Game: 10 tackles
Troy Trojans
- QB, Goose Crowder— Last Game: 25/49, 226 yards, TD, 3 INT; 5 carries, 48 yards
- RB, Gavin Griffin — Last Game: 11 carries, 66 yards
Photo Credit: REUTERS
