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The UFC 330 main card is set with five bouts, the final two of which are championship fights. Islam Makhachev returns to the octagon for the first time since last November, looking to defend his Welterweight Championship against Ian Machado Garry. The UFC’s only active dual-division champion will attempt to win a record-breaking 17th straight fight in Saturday’s main event and enters as a heavy favorite against the division’s number one contender.
Prior to the main event, Strawweight Champion Mackenzie Dern makes her first title defense since winning the belt last October. Dern takes on Gillian Robertson, who arrives at Saturday’s title bout riding a five-fight winning streak dating back to 2024. Both fighters specialize in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, with Dern looking to add to her six career submission victories in the UFC as the heavy favorite.
The remaining three main card bouts feature a mix of experienced UFC veterans and rising prospects. Kickboxing legend Edson Barboza, now 40, opens the main card against the talented Argentine Esteban Ribovics. UFC veteran Dustin Stoltzfus then takes on highly touted middleweight prospect Mansur Abdul-Malik, with the 34-year-old Stoltzfus entering as the card’s biggest underdog. Finally, the experienced Jalin Turner looks to get past one of the lightweight division’s rising stars in Kaué Fernandes, who arrives on a three-fight winning streak.
With that context set, here are the top prop market picks for the UFC 330 main card.
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Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry – Fight to Go the Distance: No (+100)
Oddsmakers appear to lean toward a judges’ decision in this one, and there is logic to that given both fighters’ most recent outings. Machado Garry and Makhachev each won their last fight by unanimous decision, with Machado Garry’s last six bouts all going the distance. That said, Makhachev has historically been far more effective at finding finishes and should do so again here as the heavy favorite.
Before his unanimous decision win last November, Makhachev had finished eight of his previous ten opponents by knockout or submission. The 34-year-old is widely regarded as one of the world’s elite grapplers, with 13 career submissions to back that up. Despite Machado Garry’s larger frame and BJJ background, Makhachev has repeatedly shown against similar opponents that he operates on a different level. While this one may take a few rounds to develop, no one avoids the champion’s ground game indefinitely. Expect a finish inside the 25-minute limit.
Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics – Esteban Ribovics to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+185)
Barboza’s decline has been hard to watch, and Saturday evening could mark the end of a storied career. Since debuting in the UFC in 2010, Barboza has been one of the promotion’s most exciting fighters, yet has never captured a belt across 32 professional bouts. The now 40-year-old enters Saturday on a three-fight losing streak and faces one of the lightweight division’s most electrifying young talents in Ribovics.
Twelve of the Argentine’s 15 career victories have come by knockout or submission, and given Barboza’s recent form, another stoppage seems likely on Saturday. The Brazilian was knocked out in the first round of his last fight in December and looked a step behind from the opening seconds. Ribovics, who has two first-round stoppages since joining the UFC in 2022, has the intensity and finishing ability to produce a similar result.
Jalin Turner vs. Kaué Fernandes – Fight to Start Round 2: No (+110)
Blink, and you might miss it. Two of the lightweight division’s most relentless finishers meet on Saturday in what promises to be a brief and explosive affair. Both Turner and Fernandes arrive at UFC 330 following first-round knockouts in their most recent fights and have each been involved in two first-round finishes across their last three appearances.
Seven of Fernandes’ 11 professional wins have come via first-round stoppage, and he now faces a fighter who has been on both ends of that equation throughout his career. Turner has been finished or found a finish in the first round in 15 of his 24 professional bouts. The Tarantula is known for his explosive early aggression, which either secures a quick win or leaves him vulnerable as fights progress. Turner has a history of fading later in bouts, and if Fernandes can weather the early storm, there is a clear path to victory for the Brazilian as the underdog.
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