UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan DFS Picks & Prop Market Predictions for Saturday, October 10, 2026

The UFC returns to the Meta APEX this weekend after one of the year’s best events, UFC 332, in Salt Lake City. Saturday’s card is headlined by an intriguing middleweight bout between two top-10 prospects, Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan. This fight was originally rumored to take place at UFC 332, but it was instead made a five-round main event for this weekend’s Fight Night.

Saturday’s 12-fight card includes several veterans who could be fighting for their UFC lives, entering with multiple fight-losing streaks. Let’s break down the best props and DFS picks you need to keep in mind for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, and be sure to check out the UFC Fight Night trends and data page for each fight on the card.

Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim – Francisco Prado to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+150)

Talented Argentine Francisco Prado has struggled to adjust to the UFC after signing with the promotion at just 20 years old. Prado is now 1-5 in his first six UFC fights, and comes into Saturday riding a four-fight losing streak. His last win in the promotion came back in 2023, and it is safe to assume the now 24-year-old will be fighting for his spot on the roster this weekend. Prado got his shot in the UFC after starting his professional career 11-0 with a 100% finish rate, and we back the young South American to return to that form and land his second UFC finish with his back against the wall.

He takes on another struggling veteran, Ismael Bonfim, the Brazilian striker who has now been finished in his last three appearances. Bonfim began his UFC career with an impressive KO, but has picked up just one win via decision in his five fights since then. The 30-year-old has struggled against advanced grapplers throughout his career and has now shown some chin issues toward the back end. All four of his losses in the promotion have come by knockout or submission, and he faces a hungry fighter capable of both. Prado has split all 12 of his professional wins with six submissions and six knockouts, and is in a prime position to add another to either category. 

Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro – Felipe Franco Round 1 (+130)

Felipe Franco prepares for his third UFC appearance this weekend and will now try to follow up his impressive first win in the promotion when he takes on crafty veteran Brendson Ribeiro. The 25-year-old Brazilian light heavyweight was highly regarded after a dominant start to his professional MMA career on the regional scene. The dangerous striker got his first shot to join the UFC via Dana White’s Contender Series last season, but was submitted late in the fight despite entering as a heavy favorite, showing clear cardio issues. He eventually got another shot in the promotion, but had to move up to heavyweight and face undefeated prospect Mario Pinto in his UFC debut, losing by unanimous decision. His second bout was back at his natural 205 lb. weight class, and Franco finally showcased why there was so much hype around him on the regional scene.

He will now look to add another early finish to his impressive resume, and will certainly have shot to do so against a veteran who appears to have one foot already out of the UFC. Ribiero comes into Saturday riding a four-fight losing streak, with three of those losses coming in the first round. With the cardio issues Franco has shown, we should see the young Brazilian attempt to finish this fight as soon as possible. He began his professional career with eight straight first-round finishes and has finished all 10 of his fights outside the UFC/DWCS within the opening five minutes. 

Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan – Christian Leroy Duncan ML (+110)

The #10 ranked middleweight prospect Christian Leroy Duncan gets his first five-round opportunity headlining Saturday’s event as the slight underdog. The Englishman comes into Saturday on a five-fight win streak and is now 8-2 since joining the UFC, last losing in July of 2024. The 31-year-old took down middleweight legend Jared Cannonier back in July and has since beaten back-to-back respected fighters in the division by unanimous decision in his last two fights. He will get arguably his toughest challenge yet, taking on the #4 middleweight prospect, but certainly has the tools to take down the Brazilian in this one.

Allen has successfully bounced back from the brief two-fight losing streak he suffered in late 2024 – early 2025. He has now won three straight coming into Saturday, with two decision wins and one KO win. He will struggle against the range striking from the English international, who comes in with a four-inch reach advantage. While Allen certainly has the advantage on the mat, taking Duncan down may prove to be difficult for the already inefficient grappler. Duncan has a 57% takedown defense, while Allen successfully takes down opponents at just 41%. Look for Duncan to dominate on the feet and strike his way to a decision win if he is unable to finish Allen early on.

Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan DFS Picks

Country	Player	Opponent	FPPF	Salary
🇬🇧	Christian Leroy Duncan	Allen	79.4	$7,700
🇧🇷	Matheus Camilo	Herbert	68.0	$8,800
🇺🇸	Kai Kamaka III	Fili	53.4	$7,600
🇺🇸	Julius Walker	Meerschaert	49.5	$9,200
🇧🇷	Alice Pereira	Zheleznyakova	60.1	$8,400
🇧🇷	Melissa Gatto	Kareckaite	71.3	$8,300

Alice Pereira ($8,400)

We open our DFS lineup for Saturday with the young Brazilian striker who has made waves in the MMA world at only 20 years old. Alice Pereira picked up her first win in the UFC back in April, and will now look to ride that momentum to her third fight in the promotion. She takes on veteran striker Daria Zhelezniakova, who has now lost two of her four UFC fights after an impressive start to her professional career. The Russian competitor has been unable to showcase the knockout power we saw on the regional scene, and now faces one of the youngest knockout artists in all of MMA. Look for Pereira to add another finish to her already decorated resume.

Julius Walker ($9,200)

Julius Walker is in a prime position to bounce back from back-to-back losses when he takes on a UFC veteran that is likely fighting for the last time on Saturday evening. Walker is a heavy favorite against 38-year-old Gerald Meerschaert, who arrives at what could be his final UFC event on a five-fight losing streak. Walker has not been able to showcase the 100% finish rate that got him a shot in the promotion in his first four UFC appearances. However, Saturday should be a perfect opportunity against an opponent who has been finished in three of his last five fights.

Matheus Camilo ($8,800)

Young lightweight prospect Matheus Camilo has quickly moved past a submission defeat in his UFC debut with back-to-back wins and his first knockout in the promotion back in July. He now comes into Saturday as a solid favorite over Englishman Jai Herbert. The 38-year-old is coming off just his fourth win in 10 UFC appearances, and has split his last four fights 2-2. Herbert has had chin issues later in rounds in the past, and facing a finisher as talented as Camilo will be difficult the later this fight goes. The 25-year-old now has 7 finishes in his 11 career wins.

Kai Kamaka III ($7,600)

Kai Kamaka III comes in as a slight underdog against veteran featherweight Andre Fili. Kamaka is now in his third stint with the UFC and has split his first two fights, most recently getting knocked out by the talented, undefeated prospect Luke Riley. Fili will not pose as big of a striking threat to Kamaka this late in his career, and the 36-year-old has been on the wrong end of finishes recently instead. Fili has now lost three of his last four fights, with two of the three coming via early stoppage. The UFC veteran is undeniably in the back end of his career, and Kamaka will be able to unload as the fight advances.

Christian Leroy Duncan ($7,700)

We broke down why Duncan to win is worth a sprinkle as a straight bet, but the English striker is certainly worth adding to your lineup for Saturday, especially at a $7,700 salary. Duncan has landed 122 combined significant strikes across his last two fights, and should rack up plenty of points with his relentless front-foot approach. The 31-year-old is always a threat to knock out his opponent whenever he steps in the octagon. While it may be difficult against an experienced fighter like Allen, he certainly has the weapons, such as his patented elbows, to potentially find a finish in Saturday’s main event.

Melissa Gatto ($8,300)

Veteran flyweight Melissa Gatto has been on the wrong side of some tough decision losses in her last four fights. Still, it will easily be the more dangerous fighter when she takes on Ernesta Kareckaite on Saturday. Gatto returned earlier this year after nearly two full years away from the octagon, losing by majority decision back in April. Before her layoff, Gatto had proven to be one of the most dangerous strikers in her weight class with three knockouts in her first five UFC fights. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt also has an elite ground game and should be able to land several takedowns against Kareckaite, who certainly prefers to stay on her feet.

Photo Credit: REUTERS