Share 
Best Bet: LVA -3.5 (-115) at Hard Rock Bet
Score Prediction: Aces 80, Valkyries 76
The Pick: Aces 80, Valkyries 76
Game Betting Analysis
The data point that continues to hit constantly for Las Vegas is the favorite. The favorite has now won an insane 12 straight games for the Aces, while Vegas has also won 10 straight games when facing a Western Conference team as the favorite. The Aces have also covered the spread in 6 straight games when playing as favorites and coming off a road loss. The favorite has also covered the spread in six of seven meetings with the Valkyries. There is more than enough data to suggest Vegas wins and covers, so we’ll abide. While the Under has hit in four of six meetings – Golden State has seen the Over hit in seven of eight road games when coming off a home win. We’ll stick with the ATS here.
WNBA Game Trends & Betting Data
Valkyries vs. Aces Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Golden State’s Suffocating Depth vs. Las Vegas’s One-Woman Burden
Golden State is a single win from a sweep, and it’s been built on wave after wave of bench scoring that Las Vegas simply hasn’t had an answer for. Kaitlyn Chen provided 11 points off the bench in Game 1, and in Game 2 the Valkyries’ reserves blitzed Las Vegas’s for a staggering 34-14 advantage, with Tiffany Hayes providing a 21-point spark and Veronica Burton drilling the go-ahead three that sealed an 83-81 win. Pair that depth with Gabby Williams’ 25-point, 11-rebound, five-assist Game 1 and Kiah Stokes controlling the glass with 14 rebounds and three blocks, and Golden State has now beaten Las Vegas with multiple different combinations carrying the load — exactly the kind of depth advantage that compounds over a short series.
Las Vegas, meanwhile, is defending its title with its back against the wall, needing to win three straight just to survive. Its core problem has been simple: the offense runs almost entirely through A’ja Wilson, who just became the first player in WNBA history to win three consecutive MVPs on the strength of a league-leading 26.2 points per game, and who still put up 24 points in Game 2 — yet it wasn’t nearly enough, because Las Vegas opened that game with an anemic 11-point first quarter, fell behind by 17, and got almost nothing from a bench that was outscored 34-14. If Chelsea Gray (16 points in Game 1), Jackie Young, and the rest of Las Vegas’s supporting cast can’t generate quick offense to take the burden off Wilson, the defending champions are staring down a 3-0 hole and an early playoff exit despite arguably the finest individual season of Wilson’s career.
Game Information
- Date: Friday, October 9, 2026
- Kickoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Network: Peacock, NBCSN
- Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena – 177.2 ppg; 9-12 O/U
- Series Score: Valkyries 2-0
Key Players
Golden State Valkyries
- Gabby Williams — Last Game: 20 points, 5 rebounds
- Kayla Thornton — Last Game: 16 points
Las Vegas Aces
- A’ja Wilson — Last Game: 24 points, 7 rebounds
- Jackie Young — Last Game: 14 points, 8 assists
Photo Credit: REUTERS
