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Best Bet: WF +1.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Wake Forest 33, SMU 27
The Pick: Wake Forest 33, SMU 27
We’ll take the Demon Deacons’ spread based on their 2026 ATS success and current run, while the outright win is also there for those brave enough to take a risk.
Game Betting Analysis
This one is pretty cut-and-dry with the pick and the reason, which is Wake Forest to cover. The Demon Deacons have been lethal this season, led by Gio Lopez who didn’t even play in a 77-0 win over Merrimack last week. Wake Forest has allowed 14 points or less in five straight games while scoring 38 points or more in all of those games as well. The fewest amount of points put up by Wake Forest has been 20 this season, so SMU will be in a track meet which they can do. However, Wake is on a 7-0 ATS run and now enter as +1.5-point underdog. We’ll camp out here as SMU has actually hit the Under in seven straight games against Top 15 AP ranked schools, no matter how appealing the Over is based on who’s playing.
Wake Forest-SMU Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Gio Lopez’s Historic Efficiency vs. SMU’s Shorthanded Front Seven
Wake Forest brings the hottest offense in the sport into Saturday’s home date with SMU, sitting at 8-1 with its only loss an early-season 33-20 setback at Miami. The Demon Deacons have ripped off six straight wins, scoring 30-plus points in every one of them, and they’ve averaged an FBS-best 64.0 points over their last two games while ranking tied for 3rd nationally in first-half scoring at 24.2 points per game. North Carolina transfer Gio Lopez has been the catalyst, carrying an 18.00 touchdown-to-interception ratio that ranks 2nd in the FBS, and last week’s 77-0 demolition of Merrimack showed the offense’s full range — 730 total yards with zero turnovers, backup Steele Pizzella going 23-of-28 for 432 yards and three touchdowns, and Jack Foley hauling in six catches for 162 yards. Against anyone not wearing Miami’s colors this season, Wake Forest’s offense simply hasn’t had an answer thrown at it yet.
SMU, meanwhile, is 7-2 and 5-2 in ACC play after a 51-28 win over Virginia Tech last week, but that game doubled as a warning sign for Saturday. Despite four sacks and two takeaways, the Mustangs still allowed 417 total yards, including 291 passing yards to Ethan Grunkemeyer and 123 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just 13 carries — 9.5 yards a pop — to Jeffrey Overton Jr. It’s part of a season-long trend: opponents opened the year averaging 175.3 rushing yards per game against SMU, a steep fall from 2025’s 19th-ranked run defense, after the Mustangs lost run-stopping anchors Isaiah Smith (8.5 sacks, 18 tackles for loss), Terry Webb, Jeffrey M’ba, and Cameron Robertson to departures, with head coach Rhett Lashlee admitting flatly that his defense “has to be able to tackle on defense against the run.” If Wake Forest’s offensive line can manufacture the same explosive runs that have gashed SMU all season to complement Lopez’s efficient passing, the Demon Deacons have a real path to springing the home upset.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
- Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN, ESPN+
- Venue: Gerald J Ford Stadium – 59.8 ppg; 3-3 O/U
- Conference: ACC
Key Players
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
- QB, Gio Lopez — Last Game: DNP
- WR, Carlos Hernandez — Last Game: 4 catches, 89 yards, 2 TD
SMU Mustangs
- QB, Kevin Jennings — Last Game: 24/32, 350 yards, 4 TD, INT
- WR, Yamir Knight — Last Game: 6 catches, 103 yards, 2 TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
