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Happy Friday the 13th!! We could certainly use some good luck today. Alas, here we are.
I still need to win 1.5 more of these bets (we count free throws as half), lest I have to run 10 miles in jeans.
Today, we have our first repeat pick of the season with Jarrett Allen at odds. Let’s get it.
Why Jarrett Allen for NBA First Basket vs. the Heat
Allen is back to looking like himself after a knee issue cost him back-to-back games against the 76ers and Knicks last week. In his return against New York on Wednesday, he put up 11 points on 4-of-7 shooting with 14 boards in 32 minutes as the Cavs won 115-107. On the season, he’s averaging 12.9 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, and almost none of that comes from beyond the arc (0.3 made threes per game). For first basket, that’s exactly the profile we want: his looks are lobs, dump-offs and putbacks at the rim, the highest-percentage shots on the floor.
Then there’s the opening tip, which is where a lot of first basket value starts. Win the jump and your team gets the first crack at the rim, and Allen is one of the best in the business at it. Entering this season, he ranked top 10 in jump-ball win rate among all players since 1996-97, and he scored the first basket 15 times last regular season. Miami will likely counter with Bam Adebayo, who’s athletic enough to make it a real contest, but we’ll take Allen in that matchup. If Cleveland controls the tip, the opening set is a natural spot to feed the big man who just won it before the defense is settled.
Cleveland’s backcourt helps him out here, too. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden both draw a ton of attention on the first trip down, and when the defense collapses on a pick-and-roll, Allen is the guy rolling free. Opening sets also tend to be designed to get an easy look, and nothing on the Cavs’ menu is easier than a Harden pocket pass to Allen at the dunker’s spot. With Sam Merrill day-to-day (elbow), there’s one less shooter to steal an early catch-and-shoot three, too.
The risk is obvious. Mitchell and Evan Mobley (16.9 PPG, nearly two threes a night) are the bigger volume scorers, and Bam Adebayo is a strong rim protector for a fully healthy Heat team. But first basket isn’t about who scores the most over 48 minutes. It’s about who gets the cleanest look in the first minute or two, and at his price, Allen’s high-efficiency shot diet gives him a better shot than the odds suggest.
NBA First Basket Tracker 2026-27 Season
| Date | Pick | Odds | Units Wagered | Overall Record | Units +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/13/2026 | Jarrett Allen | +625 | 1.00 | ?? | ?? |
| 11/12/2026 | Alex Sarr | +700 | 1.00 | 3.5-13 | ▲8.25 |
| 11/11/2026 | Luka Doncic | +475 | 1.00 | 3.5-12 | ▲9.25 |
| 11/10/2026 | Darius Garland | +575 | 1.00 | 3.5-11 | ▲10.25 |
| 11/07/2026 | Ivica Zubac | +550 | 1.00 | 3.5-10 (free throws) | ▲11.25 |
| 11/06/2026 | Walker Kessler | +575 | 1.00 | 3-10 | ▲8.50 |
| 11/05/2026 | Pelle Larsson | +600 | 1.00 | 3-9 | ▲9.50 |
| 11/04/2026 | De'Aaron Fox | +600 | 1.00 | 3-8 | ▲10.50 |
| 11/02/2026 | Zach Edey | +470 | 1.00 | 3-7 | ▲11.50 |
| 10/30/2026 | Bam Adebayo | +600 | 1.00 | 3-6 | ▲ 12.50 |
| 10/29/2026 | Deni Avdija | +750 | 1.00 | 2-6 | ▲ 6.50 |
| 10/28/2026 | Tyler Herro | +650 | 1.00 | 2-5 | ▲ 7.50 |
| 10/27/2026 | Cade Cunningham | +500 | 1.00 | 1-5 | ▲ 1.00 |
| 10/26/2026 | Josh Giddey | +1400 | 1.00 | 1-4 | ▲ 2.00 |
| 10/23/2026 | Brandon Miller | +600 | 1.00 | 1-3 | ▲ 3.00 |
| 10/22/2026 | Jarrett Allen | +600 | 1.00 | 1-2 | ▲ 4.00 |
| 10/21/2026 | Anthony Edwards | +600 | 1.00 | 0-2 | ▼ 2.00 |
| 10/20/2026 | Jaylen Brown | +700 | 1.00 | 0-1 | ▼ 1.00 |
For more on how the market works, plus jump ball and opening-play strategy, see our NBA first basket guide.
