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It’s time for the fourth day of the knockout rounds at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. We’ve got three games on tap for today, including England/Congo DR at 12 p.m. ET, Belgium/Senegal at 4 p.m. ET, and USA/Bosnia-Herzegovina at 8 p.m. ET.
We’re going to dive into these matchups and then provide my favorite buys for the day.
With that in mind, let’s dive into our top prediction market trades for Wednesday, July 1. Make sure to check out our World Cup match trends page for daily odds, insights, and betting data for each game.
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Top Prediction Market Trades: Best World Cup Trades for Wednesday, July 1
Congo DR Over 0.5 Goals: No (0.61¢ at Kalshi)
Congo DR is going to have to play a mistake-free game if they’re going to pull off the major upset against England. Look for Congo to sit back and try to make something happen on the counter. They can look to Paraguay for a model for how to defend against a juggernaut European side like Germany.
This cautious gameplan is likely to result in limited scoring chances for Congo DR, which is why I like paying up for them to go Under 0.5 goals. It also helps that England has tightened up defensively, putting up back-to-back clean sheets. This is notable because Thomas Tuchel’s side did not concede a single goal in UEFA Qualifying.
When you combine a defensive gameplan from Congo DR against an organized English side that should dominate possession, you have an ideal game environment for this Under.
Belgium/Senegal Over 2.5 Goals: No (0.54¢ at Kalshi)
Senegal has played in three high-scoring games in this tournament: 3-1 loss to France, 3-2 loss to Norway, and a 5-1 win over Iraq. But I’m expecting their Round of 32 match vs. Belgium to look a little different. With the Red Devils expected to dominate possession, Senegal will likely look to sit back in a low block.
Senegal can look to Iran (0-0 draw vs Belgium) and Egypt (1-1 draw vs Belgium) as examples of how to play against this team. With teams naturally playing a bit more conservatively in the knockout rounds, this looks like the right spot for an Under.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see this game go into extra time with a 1-1 type of score line.
USA to Win by More Than 1.5 Goals vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: No (0.54¢ at Kalshi)
USA has looked highly impressive throughout this tournament. But as one of the host nations, there’s a lot of pressure against a perceived minnow like Bosnia-Herzegovina. Americans expect to win this match.
But they shouldn’t take Bosnia lightly. This is a team that eliminated Italy in qualifying, drew against Canada in a road match, and held Switzerland to 0-0 past the 70th minute.
Bosnia is going to play highly defensive, sitting in a low block in attempt to frustrate USA into some costly mistakes, which they can try to take advantage of on the counter. Getting Bosnia +1.5 in what is likely a 1-1, 1-0, or 2-1 type of game looks appealing, especially at such a reasonable cost.
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If licensed online sportsbooks aren’t offered where you live, prediction markets present another way to participate in sports-related events. Instead of betting against a sportsbook at predetermined odds, users buy and sell contracts linked to specific outcomes through an exchange-style marketplace. As trading activity changes, contract prices rise and fall to reflect the market’s assessment of each outcome’s likelihood. Many platforms also let traders close their positions before the event is settled, providing added flexibility.
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